Making robust lineup selections every week might be the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of. Once you’re torn between two related gamers and easily do not know which one to start out, begin the participant with the superior matchup.
Ah, however precisely how does one decide the most effective (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings present a schedule-independent methodology to judge positional matchups every week, rating all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect talent positions (quarterback, operating again, huge receiver and tight finish). As an alternative of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed knowledge to indicate how every protection fared relative to the issue of the schedule it has confronted. This gives a fairer strategy to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy factors allowed, displays how far above or under gamers’ weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A optimistic quantity implies that the matchup is favorable; a unfavorable quantity means it is unfavorable. Additionally, do not forget that groups typically use a number of operating backs and huge receivers in a recreation, and these plus/minus averages cowl a group’s personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings’ method. Not each favorable matchup ought to be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup prevented. In order for you my — and the ESPN fantasy workers’s — most full supply for whom to start out and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
This week is not plentiful with delicate quarterback matchups. 4 groups, together with three of the 13 most favorable matchups, are on byes. One other two of these 13 most favorable matchups, the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions, play on “Thursday Evening Soccer” and due to this fact demand early lineup selections. One other faces the No. 1 positional scorer, Josh Allen, an apparent weekly fantasy starter. Streaming quarterbacks this week means both risking a middling matchup or diving deep into the positional pool.
Matchups spotlight: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). His fantasy manufacturing has been lackluster by means of 4 NFL begins — he has didn’t crack the positional high 10 in any of them — however to his credit score, he has displayed remarkably good accuracy, posting the league’s fifth-best completion share (68.2%) and seventh-best off course fee (12.0%) throughout that five-week span. The Buccaneers have been one of many league’s weaker cross defenses all 12 months, however particularly currently, the place quarterbacks have averaged the second-most fantasy factors per passing try (0.58) and most factors per speeding try (1.56) towards them through the previous 5 weeks. If Shough makes an attempt between the 43 and 38 throws he did the previous two weeks, he might put up his first start-worthy level complete.
Others to love: Jared Goff, Lions (vs. Cowboys); Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks (at Atlanta Falcons).
Matchup to keep away from: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Inexperienced Bay Packers). Week 2 of his four-week span of treacherous matchups — additionally the Philadelphia Eagles final week and the Cleveland Browns and Packers once more the following two weeks — brings the protection that has been the hardest towards quarterbacks over the previous 5 weeks. Amongst certified quarterbacks this season, Williams ranks final in completion share (58.1%), second worst in off course fee (22.1%) and twenty second of 33 in landing fee (4.3%). He is a harmful begin in a playoff (or get-in) week.
Working backs
Matchups spotlight: RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders). He averaged a operating back-worst 2.3 fewer yards per carry than anticipated, per Subsequent Gen Stats, and took solely certainly one of 24 carries for double-digit yardage whereas beginning the Broncos previous two video games. However, Harvey’s success in scoring place — he transformed a pair of touchdowns on performs inside 5 yards of the top zone in Week 13 — will hold him within the group’s good graces for what’s a second consecutive excellent matchup. The Raiders noticed three completely different sub-70%-started operating backs exceed 16 fantasy factors towards them the previous two weeks mixed, in video games wherein their opponents largely managed the tempo of play. The latter level is essential right here, with the Broncos one of many week’s largest favorites regardless of their road-team standing.
Others to love: Aaron Jones Sr./Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Washington Commanders); Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (at Buffalo Payments).
Matchup to keep away from: Ashton Jeanty, Raiders (vs. Broncos). He has markedly improved his efficiency as a receiver not too long ago, averaging 5.7 of his 10.7 factors over the previous 5 weeks on catches, which helps alleviate among the issues about recreation move on this matchup. That mentioned, Jeanty averaged solely 3.2 yards per carry in these groups’ Week 10 assembly, his 15.3 fantasy factors in that recreation propped up by a four-yard landing early within the contest. He is certainly one of solely six operating backs to attain as many as 15 factors in a recreation towards the Broncos this 12 months.
Vast receivers
1:29
Is Chistian Watson a dependable fantasy possibility in Week 14?
Daniel Dopp explains why Christian Watson is a low-end flex possibility vs. the Bears.
Matchups spotlight: Christian Watson, Packers (vs. Bears). He would not seem to have misplaced a step following January ACL surgical procedure. In his six video games since returning, he has 9 catches on throws 15-plus yards downfield and has averaged 15.2 mph on his routes, per Subsequent Gen Stats, rating second and third in these classes, respectively. Whereas the opposing Bears did get cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson again from damage final week, the group has had a tough time protecting its secondary wholesome all 12 months. They’ve additionally surrendered a 51.6% completion fee, seven touchdowns and 78.8 receiving yards per recreation to huge receivers on throws a minimum of 15 yards downfield, all of these numbers backside three within the league.
Others to love: Jameson Williams, Lions (vs. Cowboys); Adonai Mitchell, New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins); Chris Olave, Saints (at Buccaneers).
Matchup to keep away from: Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles, “Monday Evening Soccer”). Chargers receivers have been tough to gauge over the previous 5 weeks. They’ve 4 completely different gamers, together with tight finish Oronde Gadsden II, with a goal share between 17-22%, becoming a member of the Indianapolis Colts as the one groups that may declare that many. With McConkey’s main function extra in query today, a matchup with the Eagles is undesirable. They’ve held opposing WR1s to 1.45 fantasy factors per goal for the season, and huge receivers as a complete to 1.42 per goal, the fifth- and third-lowest charges within the league.
Tight ends
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Is Kyle Pitts fantasy possibility for Week 14?
Daniel Dopp breaks down why Kyle Pitts is a TE2 possibility in Week 14 towards the Seahawks.
Matchups spotlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons (vs. Seahawks). If the Seahawks’ protection has a flaw, it is containing opposing tight ends. Their 2.2 Adjusted FPA towards the place for the season ranks seventh most within the league, they usually’ve seen 10 completely different tight ends rating double-digit fantasy factors, together with Gunnar Helm (Week 12) and T.J. Hockenson (Week 13) the previous two weeks. Pitts has averaged 11.5 factors with a 25.9% goal share in Kirk Cousins‘ three begins this season, giving him probability at capitalizing upon the matchup.
Matchup to keep away from: Travis Kelce, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (vs. Houston Texans). He is a tricky participant to bench, rating second in complete and per recreation factors amongst tight ends and tenth on the place with an 18.6% goal share. That mentioned, Kelce’s statistical ceiling is decrease than normal this week because of the matchup. The Texans have surrendered solely three double-digit fantasy level totals to tight ends this season, they usually restricted Tyler Warren to solely 11.2 factors in Week 13.
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