Learn our UFC Vegas 112 predictions for Saturday, December 13. The occasion can be reside from the UFC Apex on December 13, with a 7:00 p.m. ET begin time.
Our MMA specialists went via this weekend’s 13-fight lineup for his or her UFC finest bets and recognized their favourite picks for the cardboard.
You will discover their evaluation and picks, in addition to Sean Zerillo’s moneyline and prop projections, on these matches beneath.
UFC Vegas 112 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 112 Prop Projections
Steven Asplund vs. Sean Sharaf
Billy Ward, Employees Author
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
It is a battle the place I consider the market is each overvaluing the favourite and undervaluing the underdog.
I am going to begin with the favored Asplund. “Concrete” picked up an enormous win on the Contender Collection this season, needing simply 16 seconds to complete Anthony Guarascio. Spectacular as that was, it did not train us a lot. Guarascio is a former middleweight who crushed just a few cans at heavyweight, and has already been completed once more following the loss to Asplund. The place we did be taught loads about Asplund was in his second-round submission loss to Denzel Freeman.
Freeman absorbed some injury from Asplund early, however was in a position to take him down simply and completely dominated Asplund on the bottom.
Not solely did Asplund look misplaced as soon as the battle hit the mat, however he seemingly had nothing left within the tank by the beginning of the second spherical. Whereas Asplund has gained fights which have prolonged, none of these required him to grapple, and he is clearly extra comfy hanging.
The final time we noticed Sharaf, he additionally had a cardio dump within the second spherical, although his was extra forgivable. He made his UFC debut on lower than every week’s discover towards Junior Tafa, almost completed Tafa on the bottom in Spherical 1 earlier than Tafa was saved by the bell, after which had nothing left within the second body. The mix of UFC debut jitters, a close to end, and the brief discover a minimum of doubtlessly explains the difficulty.
Extra importantly, he is a succesful and keen grappler, and Asplund is likely to be one takedown away from shedding each time he enters the Octagon. I am going to take the extra well-rounded Xtreme Couture product at +190 odds any day.
The Choose: Sean Sharaf +190 (FanDuel)
Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Sean Zerillo, Senior Author
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
Cesar Almeida is certainly one of a number of public underdogs I’ve recognized on Saturday’s card; bettors and followers are backing him to win this bout at roughly a 41% clip, whereas the betting market has him at nearer to 35% implied.
Furthermore, he is 12 years older than his opponent, Cezary Oleksiejcuk, the youthful brother of 17-fight UFC veteran Michal Oleksiejzuk, who has a wealth of MMA expertise for a 25-year-old, with 19 skilled and 31 newbie bouts.
All of that MMA expertise ought to assist in a battle towards a former professional kickboxer, Almeida, who needs to be the extra technical striker, regardless of ceding two inches of top and an inch of attain.
That stated, Oleksiejczuk is the quicker, stronger, and extra dynamic athlete, and Almeida has permitted 14 takedowns and 20 minutes of management time via his first 56 minutes inside the UFC octagon. Cezary, who’s extra well-rounded than his brother, ought to discover the trail of least resistance on the mat after spending his whole camp coaching in Brazil at Crew Preventing Nerds.
When there’s a minimum of a 12-year age hole between MMA opponents, the youthful fighter has gained at a close to 70% clip, in comparison with common odds of round 60% implied (-150), greater than 12% above expectation.
I projected Oleksiejczuk as a near-250 favourite (71.5% implied); play his moneyline to -228, at a two % edge in comparison with my projected quantity, or embrace him as a parlay piece as much as -245 (a 0.5% edge).
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