Netflix is preparing for a lengthy legal review of its bid to buy Warner Bros., and President Trump is keeping his options open.
The president expressed skepticism about the deal Sunday night and said he’ll be “involved in that decision,” possibly portending a long and politically tainted review. But he also praised Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos, and he notably did not explicitly come out against the deal. Nor has he posted anything critical about it on Truth Social.
Predicting policy decisions from a transactional president remains a fool’s errand. Big business executives have increasingly sought to get on Trump’s good side this term, in many cases successfully exchanging promises of investments in Trump’s pet projects for favorable treatment. But Trump has to weigh the strong business relationships he seeks against his populist agenda and a base that is clamoring for the Justice Department to challenge Netflix.
For now he is defaulting to “we’ll see what happens.”
This is a significant shift from 2016, during a previous sale of HBO and Warner’s parent company. Days before he won reelection the first time, Trump said his administration would not approve the AT&T-Time Warner merger, saying, “It’s too much concentration of power in the hands of too few.” He cited the deal as “an example of the power structure I’m fighting.”
Some prominent Trump influencers are saying much the same thing this time around. MAGA media commentators like Steve Bannon and Matt Gaetz spoke out against Netflix’s $72 billion deal for Warner Bros. as soon as it was announced last Friday.
“TRUMP MUST STOP THIS!” wrote Gaetz, who was in line to run the Justice Department earlier this year.
It’s normal for the Justice Department’s antitrust division to examine a mega-merger proposal and consider suing to block the deal. But it’s not normal for the president to openly opine about it, or to say that he’ll be involved.
Going back decades, government regulators have generally operated independently of the president, insulated from political pressure.
Trump blew up those norms during his first term, leading to widespread concerns about favor-trading and corruption.
Trump vs. AT&T
The recent deals involving HBO and Warner demonstrate what’s changed. Keep in mind that CNN and HBO are part of the same corporate family, although that will change next year when Warner Bros. Discovery breaks itself into two publicly traded pieces.
Back in 2017, with Trump in office and his opposition to the AT&T-Time Warner deal on the record, Trump and his aides tried to influence CNN’s coverage of the president, knowing that the parent company needed the Trump administration’s approval to merge. There was talk of potentially replacing CNN’s president to appease Trump, and talk of Rupert Murdoch trying to buy CNN to achieve the same result.
But Time Warner management defended CNN’s independence and did not interfere or sell off the news channel. In fact, some sources said at the time that Trump’s perceived meddling stiffened the spines of the executives.
When the Justice Department sued to block the deal, AT&T and Time Warner went through the long legal process, rather than throwing in the towel.
Justice Department officials insisted that the lawsuit was not related to Trump’s grievances with CNN. And Trump – not yet bragging about his power the way he does now – waved off suggestions that he was involved.
“Well, I didn’t make the decision,” he said when the Justice Department intervened.
But the people running Time Warner perceived his influence. And at the end of the day, the court ruled against the Trump administration, so HBO and CNN were allowed to change hands.
The next time the assets went on the block, in 2021, Trump was out of office, and there was no speculation about the Biden administration taking action based on the president’s personal feelings.
As Sen. Amy Klobuchar said in 2017, is a “long tradition” of the Justice Department making legal decisions “based on the facts of a case and not based on outside meddling or any kind of a political decision.”
That quote seems an ancient text now. Trump’s personal involvement with the Justice Department is out in the open. A recent study by Reuters found more than 470 “targets of retribution under Trump’s leadership” to date.
Sarandos and Trump
Netflix isn’t oblivious to this. Sarandos forged a personal relationship with Trump shortly after the 2024 election, a person familiar with the matter told CNN.
The two men had a long, friendly dinner at Mar-a-Lago in December 2024. That meant Sarandos had an open line of communication to Trump when Netflix entered the bidding war for Warner Bros. and HBO.
Sarandos flew to Washington and met with Trump in the Oval Office last month, the source said, confirming an earlier report by Bloomberg.
Trump then confirmed the Sarandos meeting during a Q&A with reporters on the red carpet of the Kennedy Center Honors – an event he hosted, underscoring his interest in all things Hollywood.
The president said he has a “lot of respect” for Sarandos and alluded to a first-name-basis relationship: “Ted has really done a legendary job.”
But he also referenced the antitrust concerns at issue, saying the combined market share of Netflix and HBO could be a problem.
Netflix has its answers ready, pointing to giant rivals like YouTube and an always-changing competitive set around the world.
And the company has expressed its confidence with its wallet: Netflix agreed to pay Warner Bros. Discovery a $5.8 billion breakup fee if the deal fails to overcome regulatory hurdles.
That’s one of the biggest breakup fees in corporate history.
Ultimately, it won’t be Trump’s decision to make — the courts will decide the deal’s fate if it’s challenged. But Trump could make the most earth-shattering Hollywood merger in years significantly more difficult to move forward.
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