‘Tis the season.
It’s the time of yr the place we get a number of weather-centric handicaps, and if you happen to’ve listened to anybody speaking about this recreation this week, you didn’t need to hear too fastidiously — or for all that lengthy.
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No, the Dolphins haven’t got an excellent document within the chilly — although we’ve seen the bar for what’s “chilly” get dropped just like the mercury in December after Miami gained simply in freezing, however bearable, circumstances in New York (41 levels at kickoff).
Sure, it helped that Miami performed the Jets, however who do you assume they’ve been enjoying when it’s been aggressively chilly as a part of Tua Tagovailoa’s 0-5 document in sub-40 diploma temperatures?
Th reply? The Payments (twice), the 2024 Packers, the Chiefs and the Titans (when Tennessee went 12-5 in 2021). Some had been shut, and others weren’t, however was Miami alleged to win any of these?
The traits don’t just like the Dolphins right here, however the previous week has seen a weird scenario with a key personnel concern that really impacts the on-field matchup in a means that conflicts with the troubles over the climate.
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Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 42.5)
The Steelers will likely be with out T.J. Watt as a consequence of a punctured lung stemming from a needling therapy. A star since principally the primary time he stepped on the sector for Pittsburgh, Watt has missed 11 video games in his profession.
The Steelers have gained as soon as with out him.
Pittsburgh, typically boasting a harmful protection because of an aggressive cross rush, has allowed a mean of 27 factors within the 10 losses, with the lone win coming 20-18 over the Buccaneers in Tom Brady’s final season — because of a late cease of a two-point conversion, and a Steelers drive to expire the clock.
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If there’s a silver lining to Watt being out, it’s that Pittsburgh won’t have many probabilities to hurry the passer. Throughout the Dolphins’ four-game successful streak, Tagovailoa has thrown the ball solely 85 whole occasions. A part of that is because of having a lead for a lot of these 4 video games, and having the ability to run the ball 105 occasions in that stretch, however you’ll be able to’t hand the ball off that top a proportion of your performs if you happen to’re not profitable at it.
Since Week 10, the Dolphins are second within the NFL in Anticipated Factors Added per speeding play (behind solely the Rams). That’s come after beginning the season thirteenth, with a unfavorable EPA/play on working performs.
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In the meantime, on the season, the Steelers are twenty eighth within the defensive model of that metric, and the final time they had been at dwelling, the Payments set an all-time document for many speeding yards by a visiting group in Pittsburgh.
Tagovailoa won’t be thrilled about enjoying within the chilly, however what number of 42-year-olds with a fracture of their left wrist are you aware that may be psyched concerning the potential circumstances on Monday evening?
In contrast to Miami’s QB, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have a dependable, and probably explosive, floor assault to depend on. Plus, if Tagovailoa has to throw greater than typical, he ought to have extra time than anticipated to do it with out Watt bearing down on him.
Decide: Dolphins +3
Participant props
QB Tua Tagovailoa underneath 28.5 cross makes an attempt (-125)
You are able to do the maths on what 85 cross makes an attempt averages out to over the 4 video games the place the Dolphins have centered extra on the run recreation, however we’ll make it simple on you: Essentially the most throws Tagovailoa has tried is 23. Given the potential mismatch between the Dolphins’ run recreation and the Steelers’ run protection, it’s going to take a collection of particular outlier occasions for Pittsburgh to take Mike McDaniel out of his recreation plan for his quarterback.
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QB Aaron Rodgers longest cross completion underneath 35.5 yards (-120)
In the event you had the underneath on this prop final week, you recognize it misplaced on the primary play from scrimmage. You probably heard how shocked Jim Nantz and Tony Romo had been that Rodgers linked deep to DK Metcalf, because the Steelers hadn’t accomplished an extended cross in all the month of November. Rodgers added a later lengthy acquire because of a protection break on a checkdown to Jaylen Warren, however we’ll guess that will probably be more durable to attach for an extended acquire on a a lot colder evening.
WR Adam Thielen over 1.5 receptions (+110)
In the event you weren’t on prime of the real-life waiver wire final week, it would nonetheless be information to you that Thielen is even on the Steelers, however the veteran was picked up and instantly inserted into the Pittsburgh lineup, enjoying the second-most snaps of any of their broad receivers.
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Thielen caught just one ball on one goal, for all of 4 yards, however he performed that a lot as a result of he is aware of the place to go (an obvious concern for the Steelers’ pass-catchers). After one other week to observe with Rodgers, let’s guess {that a} profession of being sure-handed earns Thielen a pair appears {that a} long-time possession receiver can haul in.
Anytime landing
Darren Waller (+333)
In Waller’s return to the NFL this season, he began this stint with the Dolphins by scoring 4 occasions in three video games. Then, he bought damage 16 snaps into his fourth.
The pass-catching tight finish has been again for a pair of video games, and whereas he’s been held scoreless, of the minimal throws Tagovailoa has tried, three in every recreation have gone Waller’s means.
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Whereas handicapping the facet by the climate may be perilous, close to the aim line, dimension is a excessive precedence within the chilly.
Jaylen Wright (+500)/Ollie Gordon (+825)
Let’s cut up a unit throughout every of the Dolphins’ backup working backs.
Why not De’Von Achane? As a result of his -130 price ticket is somewhat steep for a participant who left final week’s recreation with a rib damage.
Why Jaylen Wright? As a result of he picked up proper the place Achane left off in New York, working for 107 yards, which probably earned himself the chance to spell the starter (even when Achane’s totally wholesome).
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Why the lengthy shot, Gordon? As a result of, at 6-foot-2, 225 kilos, he’s performed the position of short-yardage hammer. He is scored 4 occasions on this, his rookie season, together with in three of the Dolphins’ previous 4 video games.
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Kenneth Gainwell (+175)
At this level in his Steelers tenure, Rodgers has “his guys” that he trusts, significantly within the pink zone, and Gainwell is a type of, as he’s able to working an out of doors toss for a race to the pylon as he did in Baltimore final week, or within the passing recreation, as he did twice in opposition to the Bengals a couple of weeks again. The truth is, in final week’s essential recreation, Gainwell was concerned in eight totally different red-zone performs.
Darnell Washington (+400)
Whereas Washington hasn’t scored since Week 7, he’s truly develop into extra concerned within the offense, up till leaving final week’s recreation in Baltimore earlier than getting his now-usual 4-6 targets (5 occasions since a Week 5 bye). The massive, 6-7, 260-pound goal doesn’t seem to be one who the Dolphins’ protection could be focused on tackling within the chilly, and Rodgers has regarded his far more than even the counting stats counsel, with a number of targets known as again as a consequence of penalty.
You’ll find extra precious betting evaluation from Yahoo Sports activities betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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