The winter conferences have began, and rumors are flying round in every single place. The Pirates are getting maybe the largest pop from rumors that they’ve supplied a four-year deal to Kyle Schwarber. How a lot cash was within the four-year supply? Effectively, Dan Szymborski has one thought:
The precise rumors have the Pirates providing him one thing north of $100 million, which might simply be the biggest contract in crew historical past. It’s straightforward to scoff at that, however then I’d remind you that the richest free agent contract in Royals’ historical past is the 4 years/$72 million they forked over to Alex Gordon, so it could be the largest deal in Royals’ historical past too.
The Royals can’t do extra platoons
The Royals bought off to a sizzling begin within the rumor mill this offseason; it appeared like everybody was speaking about how they could pursue Ketel Marte, Jarren Duran, or Brendan Donovan. These rumors have cooled off, particularly because the Pink Sox have already traded for a pair of beginning pitchers and now appear set on including to their lineup as a substitute. Now, the largest rumors are the assumptions all of us ended the season with: the Royals in all probability wish to reunite with Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier.
And, in a vacuum, each of these make sense. The Royals have been significantly better after buying these two gamers. They clearly worth Frazier for his veteran presence, on the very least, and each supplied the sort of skilled at-bats that had been largely lacking from KC’s lineup in 2025, even when the outcomes weren’t all the time there. Listed here are their ending slash strains with the Royals:
Adam Frazier: .283/.320/.402/.722 – 98 wRC+
Mike Yastrzemski: .237/.339/.500/.839 – 127 wRC+.
However a bizarre factor occurs in case you lop off the ultimate day of the 2025 season, a recreation that completely didn’t matter for both crew; Yaz’s line turns into .230/.331/.461 – 115 wRC+. He hit two dwelling runs in his ultimate two at-bats of the season, and the pattern dimension is so small that these two at-bats (plus the others he took that day) can drastically alter his line. There’s no arguing that Yaz wasn’t a breath of recent air for the crew final summer time, however he was nonetheless unplayable towards lefties, and if you broaden the pattern dimension, he’s been practically precisely a league-average hitter for the final two full seasons.
Nonetheless, Yastrzemski may make sense for the Royals in a world the place they didn’t have already got a left-handed outfielder destined to get a lot of the enjoying time in proper subject. And one with much more upside, even when he’s quite a bit much less confirmed. The Royals can solely carry so many platoons on their roster, and contemplating they’ve already bought two second basemen who can’t hit (plus a 3rd in the event that they introduced again Frazier), there simply doesn’t appear to be room for platoons in each left and proper subject.
The Royals’ commerce market didn’t develop
The largest rumors across the Royals have been about their alleged beginning pitching depth and the way Kris Bubic or Noah Cameron would possibly convey them again the outfield bat they so craved. However then issues began to occur. The Angels traded away long-coveted outfielder Taylor Ward for Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez. At first, this appeared straightforward to dismiss because the Orioles being the Orioles or the Angels being the Angels. The Orioles appeared to be giving up on a starter with numerous crew management and true ace potential. The Angels didn’t require a bodily to be carried out on their latest acquisition. One of many groups was making a very boneheaded determination.
Then the rumors continued to persist that no matter deal would possibly develop between the Royals and Pink Sox would doubtlessly contain Cole Ragans for Jarren Duran in some mixture. Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron weren’t on anybody’s radar, apparently. Little or no turns into clear this early within the MLB offseason, however one factor has this yr. Groups aren’t valuing beginning pitching the identical method that they’ve up to now. Or the best way that the Royals hoped they’d.
Oh positive, some beginning pitchers are nonetheless thought-about fairly priceless. Look no additional than the deal Dylan Stop signed with the Blue Jays for proof of that. However “ace potential” doesn’t go so far as it as soon as did. Neither does an excellent ERA if it isn’t backed up by the opposite statistics. The Royals have a bunch of beginning pitchers, however seemingly not ones that anybody really needs.
Brian Henry made a wonderful – and proper – argument that the Royals in all probability had the depth to endure a significant league season, however to not additionally commerce from a few month in the past. However, what if we additionally evaluated the Royals’ pitching depth from a extra glass-half-empty perspective on the identical time?
Seth Lugo – untradeable due to his model new extension. To not point out how poorly he pitched in August and the way he went on the IL and didn’t come again.
Michael Wacha – untradeable due to the cash left on his contract at his age, and contemplating at the same time as he has been stable for the Royals, he hasn’t been something approaching elite.
Noah Cameron – Not untradeable, however received’t garner a return value dealing an area child with tons of low-cost crew management who would possibly proceed to exhibit the flexibility to pitch past his peripherals.
Kris Bubic – Not untradeable, however missing the sort of worth that might make buying and selling him interesting, contemplating his damage historical past.
Cole Ragans – Has worth, however not as a lot as he had following the 2024 season, and with an excessive amount of crew management and upside to surrender on for what groups can be keen to pay for him now.
Ryan Bergert – Untradeable following a forearm damage, and the small pattern dimension of success he had with the Royals earlier than that.
Stephen Kolek – Lacks the peripherals to trigger a crew to surrender a lot for him; that’s how he bought included within the commerce to the Royals for Freddy Fermin to start with.
Luinder Avila – In all probability not even a beginning pitcher on the huge league degree
Bailey Falter – Probably tradeable, however not for something greater than what the Royals gave as much as get him within the first place – an growing older AAAA participant.
Given what we all know now, it appears straightforward to think about that the Royals supplied up Kris Bubic for Taylor Ward – a transfer that might have been an overpay on the Royals’ half, provided that Bubic may very simply be a qualifying supply candidate subsequent yr and produce again a first-round draft choose along with no matter he provides you on the sector. However the Orioles have been keen and in a position* to outbid them.
*It’s nonetheless a extremely bizarre transfer for the Orioles, given their glut of younger bats and lack of beginning pitching. However even when the deal isn’t simply the Orioles being the Orioles, it may possibly additionally be the Orioles being the Orioles.
So, even when the Royals had sufficient depth to commerce from with out creating holes of their 2026 rotation, you possibly can see that – at the very least the best way issues have labored out – they don’t have anybody value buying and selling. Because it seems, sure, groups in all probability have been fascinated by Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans, however solely as a result of they thought they could have the ability to get them at a reduction. The Royals haven’t any actual cause to decrease their costs, contemplating how priceless these two will be on their workers in 2026, and that the returns can be underwhelming towards their purpose of bettering their lineup. So the trades simply received’t occur.
That is what occurs when a crew goes years and years of creating horrible draft picks – one thing the Royals can’t deny occurred as they left their final three eligible first-round picks all unprotected on this week’s upcoming Rule 5 draft. When it comes time to fill within the ultimate holes in a good-but-not-great roster, you don’t have the prospects to advertise or commerce, and groups virtually by no means do main league-for-major league expertise trades anymore. Definitely not on the ranges the Royals are attempting to perform.
Which means the Royals’ solely alternative is to exit and add to their crew by way of free company or under no circumstances. Contemplating the crew must hold Bobby Witt Jr. glad or danger shedding him to a different crew, which may vastly hurt their standing locally, making it tougher to persuade another person to pay for the brand new stadium they need and even to promote tickets, “under no circumstances” received’t work for a second season in a row.
The Royals stand at a crossroads that not crosses. They thought that they had a path laid out for themselves, however Billy Beane’s military burned the bridge in that route – with somewhat assist from the Royals becoming a member of the ranks of groups which have discovered methods to enhance pitchers via teaching methods which have drastically improved in recent times. The one path ahead for the Royals is to tread the toll street of free company. They might not wish to pay the price to get to their vacation spot, however they not have that alternative, they usually can not afford to be low-cost about it, both.
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