I regularly listen to podcasts as I am doing other things. They are never my primary focus, so I take it as a given that I won’t get 100 percent of whatever value they offer. Sometimes it is just nice to have background noise.
Every now and then, something grabs at my attention, and I rewind to pay better attention. Consider the following case in point from this past week: a long form interview with Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia. For those unfamiliar, he is pretty central to the AI world at the moment. It was a good listen, but my focus fluctuated as usual.
Suddenly, he was talking about diagnostic radiology and that made me zero in. to what he was saying. There is no shortage of chatter about AI in radiological social media, and most of it retreads old ground. I rarely spare a glance for such threads. On the other hand, when someone like Huang speaks up, it carries decidedly more weight.
It was far from the centerpiece of his talk. As an aside, he spoke of how, about five years ago, there was a bunch of concern about how AI would sweep in and take over the radiological field, leaving rad docs obsolete and unemployed. But then, he proudly explained, AI proceeded to enhance rather than replace us. Most rads now use some form of AI in their work, and instead of being pushed aside, there are now more practicing radiologists than before.
This was, to my disappointment, nothing new, and I resumed giving the lion’s share of my attention to whatever else I was doing at the time. Those social media threads I mentioned are roughly a 50-50 split of predicting doom/gloom versus a golden age. It is no surprise that a main AI-producing guy would be in the latter camp.
There was only one thing he said that I hadn’t repeatedly heard from pro-AI rads. It was the bit about there being more rads now than five years ago. Nobody familiar with the radiology field would have offered that up as any kind of evidence. Five years happens to be the length of time a med school grad needs to go through residency training to be a radiologist. Nobody is going to jump out of that pipeline on account of what some developing technology might do later on.
Similarly, nobody is going to hear about AI, get inspired about what it might do for radiology, and jump into the field to swell its ranks in an interval of five years or less. The only real influx would be an institution of more radiology residency spots that was already occurring. I don’t think the AI field can claim any credit for that.
Huang clearly has other thoughts on the matter. He wasn’t in that particular interview to talk about radiology. Huang was probably just making the reference to reassure non-rad listeners that, no, they don’t all need to panic about machines taking their livelihood away. That is what tends to happen when you offer a quick synopsis of a complex issue you know a lot about. Its multidimensional nature gets falsely simplified into a 2D snapshot.
On the other hand, an awful lot of rads who have sounded off about what AI will bring are basing their predictions on relatively little evidence. Most of us aren’t particularly savvy about that field. Even if we had inside information, it would probably be biased in one direction or another. “Predictions” might be too strong a word. One might more accurately call them guesses or just hopes/fears. We might as well be talking about upcoming weather.
Even relying on “experts” leaves plenty of room for error. Taking the example of predicting weather, how frequently have you been let down by meteorologists? Is it too far afield to suggest that maybe even the captains of AI industry don’t know what their products will bring? Plus, business bigwigs pretty much have to project confidence and optimism about their wares. They will be effective, safe, and good for everyone. You have nothing to fear radiologists!
If we are in a situation where we really can’t count on anyone’s predictions/guesses, how do we proceed? If our hopes come to pass, we want to be able to take advantage of whatever the future brings. If our fears manifest, we would like to be prepared to roll with punches and survive if not thrive in whatever the “new normal” turns out to be.
The first thing to do is keep eyes and ears open as things develop. Those who remain informed about what is coming down the pike are a big step ahead of others who will be surprised by it. This doesn’t mean grasping at every little rumor you come across. Many of them will be inaccurate. Not only might they steer you wrong, they could prevent you from appreciating contrary bits of info that turn out to be more valid. Avoid making your mind up prematurely.
That leads into my next suggestion. Keep as many future options open as possible without hamstringing your here and now. A great example of this is a bit of advice I have seen many docs (rads included) offer to one another over the years:live below your means.
If you have been living paycheck to paycheck for the purpose of maintaining a McMansion, high-end luxury cars, etc., and things go sideways — for instance if AI suddenly does displace us all or drastically cuts back our comp — you will immediately be up against the financial wall you have built. But if you have proactively socked money away in retirement or “rainy day” funds, you will have room to reposition yourself in whatever the radiological world has become.
Better yet, create some off-ramps for yourself long before they are ever needed. Develop some passive income streams such as commercial real estate (I’ve heard too many unhappy tales to suggest residential). If you are young and energetic enough, develop some non-radiological skills so you have options. Since we are talking about AI, maybe those skills could be in computing.
Most importantly, if you are already working in the radiology field (or merely on the cusp of entering it): keep on raddin’. The sun is shining. Keep on making hay. Don’t let fear of changes that may never come mar your enjoyment of the here and now.
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