FCS Playoff Quarterfinals: Key Matchups and Insights

The 2009 FCS championship sport pitted Bobby Hauck’s top-ranked Montana Grizzlies, six-time finalists (and two-time champions) over the earlier 15 seasons, towards Andy Talley’s second-seeded Villanova Wildcats. Montana took a 14-3 lead, however Villanova seized management with a 20-0 run and two touchdowns from MVP Matt Szczur. Montana scored late however could not get well a late onside kick, and a first-down run by Szczur sealed Villanova’s first nationwide title.

Inside two years of Szczur’s heroics, North Dakota State had made its transfer. The Bison would win 10 FCS titles between 2011 and ’24, solely briefly ceding management to James Madison (2016), Sam Houston (spring 2021) and South Dakota State (2023-24). And thru 12.9 video games in 2025, it regarded just like the Bison have been all however positive to win an eleventh ring. They’d outscored their first 12 opponents by a mean of 46-12, they usually led Illinois State 28-14 with three minutes left within the second spherical.

A humorous factor occurred subsequent: ISU’s Tommy Rittenhouse threw a brief landing go to Daniel Sobkowicz, then Jake Anderson recovered a fumble by NDSU’s Cole Payton. Rittenhouse discovered Sobkowicz for one more rating, and head coach Brock Spack, within the job since 2009, rolled the cube with a minute left. Rittenhouse scrambled proper and located Scotty Presson Jr. open for the two-point conversion and a sudden 29-28 lead. NDSU’s last-minute drive stalled out close to midfield, and the Cardinals had scored one of the crucial surprising upsets in FCS historical past.

SDSU misplaced, too. And JMU and Sam Houston have lengthy since left for FBS. As an alternative of a four-week NDSU coronation, we now have essentially the most wide-open FCS playoffs in nearly twenty years.

• No. 7 Stephen F. Austin at No. 2 Montana State (9 p.m., ESPN)

• No. 12 Villanova at No. 4 Tarleton State (midday, ESPN)

• No. 11 South Dakota at No. 3 Montana (3:30 p.m., ABC)

• Illinois State at No. 8 UC Davis (5 p.m., ESPN+)

Montana State, which misplaced title video games to NDSU in each 2024 and 2021, now has a golden alternative. So does Hauck’s Montana, which fell to SDSU by 20 factors within the 2024 finals. Villanova, now led by Talley’s successor, Mark Ferrante, is again in competition, as are ISU and South Dakota, good Missouri Valley packages usually overshadowed by the heavyweights. UC Davis, led by a dynamite offense, is on the lookout for its first semifinal in 23 seasons in FCS. Stephen F. Austin had received one playoff sport in 30 years earlier than final week’s victory over Abilene Christian; alternative is presenting itself for the Lumberjacks, too.

The favourite within the discipline? A newcomer.

Tarleton State joined FCS in 2021, however the Texans are 12-1 and beat Military early within the season. Can the newcomers maintain their nerve? Will the outdated palms, lengthy ready their flip, reap the benefits of an unimaginable alternative? The largest quarterfinal spherical in years awaits.

Playoff outcomes to this point: SFA def. No. 10 Abilene Christian 41-34; MSU def. Yale 21-13

• Offensive SP+ rankings: MSU seventh, SFA nineteenth

• Defensive SP+ rankings: SFA third, MSU sixth

For nearly 12 months, Brent Vigen and Montana State have needed to stew over a missed alternative. The Bobcats have been 15-0 after they confronted a flawed-on-paper North Dakota State group in final yr’s FCS championship sport. However the Bison performed an ideal first half and took a 21-3 lead into halftime. MSU rallied, closing the hole to 3 factors on three events, however NDSU responded every time, and time ran out on the Bobcats.

This time round, redemption will not even require beating the Bison. This MSU group is not as all-around improbable as final yr’s, however the Bobcats nonetheless have the customary top-10 run sport — Julius Davis and Adam Jones have mixed for 1,750 yards (6.3 per carry) and 19 touchdowns — and with 2,437 passing yards, a 72% completion charge and 11 speeding touchdowns, quarterback Justin Lamson has performed a stable impression of final yr’s dual-threat star, Tommy Mellott. Taco Dowler, a 2024 star, can be nonetheless round to catch the occasional deep ball and function one of many scariest punt returners within the sport.

MSU hardly ever strikes backward, however Stephen F. Austin will problem that. The Lumberjacks common an FCS-best 8.8 tackles for loss per sport, led by Ky Thomas and Aaron Austin (mixed: 22 TFLs, 12.5 sacks, 29 hurries), who’re two of 5 first-team All-Southland picks on this protection; not even together with 40 sacks, the Lumberjacks are permitting simply 3.5 yards per carry, too.

Protection has pushed the Jacks’ success, however each items have performed their half. SFA has outscored opponents by a mean of 41-15 throughout an 11-game successful streak, getting greater than sufficient from former Montana quarterback Sam Vidlak (2,447 yards, 21 TDs), receiver Kylon Harris (983 yards, 10 TDs) and working again Jerrell Wimbley (940 yards, 9 TDs). And in Bugs Mortimer, with 4 punt return scores, the Lumberjacks may need a fair scarier returner than Dowler.

MSU’s protection is one of the best SFA has confronted. Since beginning with losses to Oregon and a full-strength South Dakota State, the Bobcats have allowed simply 11.8 factors per sport. Finish Kenneth Eiden IV (11 TFLs, 5.5 sacks) offers the right pass-rushing oomph, and ball hawk Caden Dowler (5 INTs, 4 breakups, 5.5 TFLs) teleports all through the sphere.

Draft Kings projection: Montana 32.0, SFA 19.5 (MSU -12.5, over/below 51.5)

SP+ projection: Montana State 28.5, SFA 22.9

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Playoff outcomes to this point: South Dakota def. Drake 38-17, def. No. 6 Mercer 47-0; Montana def. No. 14 South Dakota State 50-29

• Offensive SP+ rankings: Montana second, South Dakota thirty third

• Defensive SP+ rankings: South Dakota eleventh, Montana thirty sixth

It takes some time to scale the ladder within the Missouri Valley. South Dakota misplaced 20 of 23 to North Dakota, then misplaced 4 of seven, and now the Coyotes have received three straight. They misplaced 10 straight to SDSU, however now they’ve break up the previous six. They misplaced 10 of 11 towards NDSU, and now they’ve break up the previous 4. And now they’re the final Dakota group standing.

Standing in the way in which of Yotes is one more heavyweight. Montana has been ready for this chance for some time — up to now 10 years, it has misplaced just one playoff sport to somebody aside from NDSU, SDSU or James Madison. Now, thanks partly to the Grizzlies’ thumping of SDSU final week, none of them are left.

Montana has one of the best remaining offense within the discipline. Between Keali’i Ah Yat‘s passing (3,514 yards, 29 TDs) and Massive Sky Offensive Participant of the 12 months Eli Gillman‘s speeding (1,396 yards, 21 TDs), the Grizzlies are completely happy to lean into no matter you may’t cease. Receiver Michael Wortham is a real all-purpose risk, too, with eight receiving touchdowns, six speeding touchdowns and a 26.4-yard kick return common. The protection shouldn’t be one in every of Montana’s finest — permitting 23.9 factors per sport and 5.8 yards per play — but it surely nonetheless compelled errors within the type of 20 interceptions (TJ Rausch and Peyton Wing every have three) and 30 sacks (5 Grizzlies, together with Wing, have at the very least three).

South Dakota barely scraped out a playoff bid, successful its final three video games by a complete of 14 factors, however the Yotes are thriving now that they are right here. After a simple first-round win over Drake, they embarrassed No. 6 Mercer on the street. They scored on six of their first seven drives, picked off 4 passes and outgained the Bears 550-277. All-conference working again L.J. Phillips Jr. (1,847 yards, 18 TDs) and quarterback Aidan Bouman (2,645 yards, 24 TDs) guarantee that the Yotes can sustain in a probable observe meet, however any time the protection performs prefer it did final week, South Dakota will most likely win. Then once more, Montana hasn’t misplaced a house playoff sport since 2013.

Draft Kings projection: Montana 34.0, South Dakota 25.5 (Montana -8.5, over/below 59.5)

SP+ projection: Montana 33.6, South Dakota 23.6

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Playoff outcomes to this point: Villanova def. Harvard 52-7, def. No. 5 Lehigh 14-7; TSU def. North Dakota 31-13

• Offensive SP+ rankings: TSU third, Villanova twenty fifth

• Defensive SP+ rankings: Villanova eighth, TSU tenth

To this point, Tarleton State’s present ambition ranges have moved too shortly for the Texans to really accomplish a lot. The Texans emerged as a possible Division II energy within the late 2010s, dropping a heartbreaker at Minnesota State within the 2018 quarterfinals, however earlier than they may conquer that degree, they have been off to the FCS. And by the point they received their first FCS playoff sport final season, rumors of their FBS ambitions had already begun to floor.

For now, nonetheless, the group that has received six complete NCAA playoff video games at any degree is your FCS title favourite, per SP+. TSU manhandled a stable North Dakota group final week, and now it takes on the latest remaining champion within the discipline.

Villanova has allowed 14 mixed factors in two playoff video games and solely 13.2 factors per sport for the reason that begin of October. Linebacker Shane Hartzell (15 TFLs, 8 sacks, 8 hurries) is the star, however 13 Wildcats have taken half in at the very least one sack, and eight have picked off at the very least one go. That range might be key to stopping a TSU assault that may both run by way of you or go over you. Quarterback Victor Gabalis has averaged 311.5 passing yards and 16.6 yards per completion over his previous 4 video games, and Hawaii switch Tylan Hines, injured for many of the season, has rushed for 335 yards in his previous two. TSU’s offense leads the FCS at 44.1 factors per sport and positive appears to be bettering for the time being.

Assuming VU really permits factors for as soon as, the offense should carry extra weight. Quarterback Pat McQuaide and receiver Luke Colella have stable upside, and working again Ja’briel Mace averages 7.4 yards over a couple of carries per sport. (Cease me if you happen to’ve heard this earlier than, however Mace can be an awesome return man; particular groups will seemingly play an enormous position in these quarterfinals.) The Wildcats boast a pair of All-CAA linemen in deal with Stephane Voltaire and guard Temi Ajirotutu, however TSU’s defensive entrance, led by edge rusher Angelo Anderson (9.5 sacks, 5 compelled fumbles), is energetic.

Villanova’s greatest energy may be pure management — it has turned the ball over simply 5 instances all yr — but it surely might want to match upside with upside in Stephenville.

Draft Kings projection: TSU 33.0, Villanova 21.5 (TSU -11.5, over/below 54.5)

SP+ projection: TSU 33.7, Villanova 21.4

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Playoff outcomes to this point: ISU def. No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana 21-3, def. No. 1 NDSU 29-28; UCD def. No. 9 Rhode Island 47-26

• Offensive SP+ rankings: UCD eighth, ISU sixteenth

• Defensive SP+ rankings: ISU thirty first, UCD 72nd

Though many quarterfinalists are chasing previous glory, each ISU and UC Davis are chasing close to glory. UCD’s shining soccer second got here with a win over North Dakota State and a finals look within the 1982 Division II playoffs, however the Aggies misplaced to what’s now Texas State. Brock Spack’s ISU Redbirds, in the meantime, got here achingly near an FCS title in 2014, taking a late lead over NDSU earlier than giving up a late landing to Carson Wentz. They have not made it previous the quarterfinals since.

The ISU protection has surged within the playoffs; the Redbirds allowed simply three factors towards Southeastern Louisiana within the first spherical, they usually erased a dominant NDSU assault final week, permitting simply 179 yards, 101 after the Bison’s first snap. NDSU scored 28 factors solely due to a pick-six, a punt return rating and a 4-yard TD drive arrange by one other decide. ISU managed to someway win within the FargoDome regardless of throwing 5 interceptions.

Linemen Garret Steffen and Jake Anderson mixed for 4.5 TFLs in Fargo, and linebacker Tye Niekamp was named the Missouri Valley Defensive Participant of the 12 months. There’s firepower right here, and that is good as a result of the UCD offense has a whole lot of firepower to match. Quarterback Caden Pinnick (2,804 passing yards, 29 TDs) is the Massive Sky’s Freshman of the 12 months, receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr. has topped 100 yards in six of his previous seven video games, and working again Jordan Fisher had an enormous 140-yard efficiency in final week’s pleasant track-meet win over Rhode Island.

The Aggies’ protection is the shakiest of any quarterfinalist. They’ve stable particular person playmakers — finish Jacob Psyk and linebacker Sam Goligoski have mixed for 25 TFLs and 16 sacks (Psyk has blocked two kicks, too) — however they allowed at the very least 38 factors in all three losses and at the very least 24 in 5 wins. ISU receivers Daniel Sobkowicz and big-play freshman Luke Mailander ought to discover open area, as may working again Victor Dawson, who’s coming off a 137-yard efficiency at NDSU. So long as Tommy Rittenhouse does not attempt to throw 5 picks once more, the Redbirds can sustain in a observe meet.

UC Davis walloped ISU 42-10 in final yr’s second spherical. Extremely, it was ISU’s solely street loss up to now two years; can the Redbirds maintain their revenge streak going?

Draft Kings projection: UC Davis 31.0, ISU 28.5 (UCD -2.5, over/below 59.5)

SP+ projection: UC Davis 30.5, ISU 30.3