As soon as projected as a pure alliance between the world’s two largest democracies, ties between New Delhi and Washington have more and more swung between heat and confrontation.
Public bonhomie has given option to sharp commerce actions, blended indicators on geopolitics, and a diplomacy formed as a lot by home politics within the US as by shared strategic pursuits.
When Donald Trump returned to the White Home on January 20, expectations in India had been cautiously excessive.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s early go to to Washington on February 12 was learn as a sign that New Delhi wished to regain momentum within the relationship.
Discussions on a bilateral commerce deal adopted, and talks of doubling commerce to $500 billion by 2030 briefly revived optimism.That section didn’t final.
The Trump administration’s incapacity to ship on its early promise of resolving the Russia–Ukraine warfare inside its first 100 days altered world alignments.
India–US ties, already strained by unresolved commerce disputes, started to fray additional.
Public bonhomie to commerce hostilities
The distinction with the previous couldn’t have been starker.
On the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi stood earlier than a crowd of over 50,000, buying and selling reward and projecting private chemistry. Trump described India as a loyal pal, whereas Modi referred to as him a “true pal within the White Home”.
By August 2025, India and the USA had been locked in a deep commerce dispute, with Washington imposing tariffs of as much as 50 % on a variety of Indian exports, leaving India among the many most closely tariffed US buying and selling companions.
There was a short window of optimism earlier in 2025. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s go to to Washington in February revived discussions on a doable commerce deal aimed toward doubling bilateral commerce and easing market obstacles.
That hope didn’t final. On 30 July, President Donald Trump introduced a brand new 25 % “reciprocal” tariff on Indian items, dealing a blow to expectations of a breakthrough.
Days later, the US publicly confirmed a commerce and vitality partnership with Pakistan, a transfer New Delhi seen with scepticism towards the backdrop of already strained ties.
Then, on 6 August, Trump signed an order imposing an extra 25 % penalty tariff on Indian imports, accusing New Delhi of financing Russia’s warfare in Ukraine by buying oil from Moscow.
The transfer took complete duties to 50 %, coming into impact later that month.
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The trail from public shows of friendship to punitive tariffs was marked by ego clashes, hardened commerce positions and the boundaries of private diplomacy.
Early warning indicators
Tensions had surfaced nicely earlier than Trump’s return to workplace. In 2018, he publicly criticised India’s import duties on Harley-Davidson bikes as “unfair”. That was adopted by the “America First” tariffs of 25 % on metal and 10 % on aluminium. In March the next 12 months, India misplaced preferential entry beneath the US Generalised System of Preferences, affecting billions of {dollars} in exports.
One other delicate fault line emerged over India and Pakistan.
Trump repeatedly claimed credit score for defusing tensions between the 2 neighbours after an April 22 assault in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians, principally vacationers. On Could 10, Trump stated he and Vice-President JD Vance had intervened to result in an “speedy ceasefire”.
India pushed again firmly.
“PM Modi advised President Trump clearly that in this era, there was no speak at any stage on topics like India-U.S. commerce deal or US mediation between India and Pakistan,” Indian International Secretary Vikram Misri stated.
“Talks for stop of navy motion happened instantly between India and Pakistan by established navy channels and on the insistence of Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi underscored that India has by no means accepted mediation prior to now and can by no means do.”
Blended messages, rising uncertainty
The volatility was on show once more on September 5, when Trump posted a cryptic message alongside {a photograph} of Modi with Chinese language President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Appears to be like like we have misplaced India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. Could they’ve an extended and affluent future collectively!” he stated.
The comment got here amid US frustration over India’s continued vitality ties with Russia and unresolved tariff disputes. Inside a day, Trump struck a softer tone, stressing the non-public bond with Modi.
“I will at all times be associates with (Narendra) Modi… He’s an incredible prime minister. He is nice. However I simply don’t love what he is doing at this specific second. However India and the USA have a particular relationship. There’s nothing to fret about. We simply have moments now and again.”
Recent tariff threats over rice
Commerce rhetoric quickly escalated once more. Trump warned of doable new tariffs on Indian rice imports, accusing India of dumping rice into the US market. Talking at a White Home roundtable with farm sector representatives and senior officers, he pressed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on India’s commerce practices.
“India, inform me about India. Why is India allowed to do this? They gotta pay tariffs. Have they got an exemption on rice?”
When advised, “No sir, we’re nonetheless engaged on their commerce deal”, Trump replied, “However they should not be dumping. I imply, I heard that. I heard that from others. They can not do this.”
The feedback coincided with the announcement of a $12-billion federal assist bundle for American farmers and renewed references to a World Commerce Organisation case involving India.
Regardless of the sharp rhetoric, Trump has continued to publicly reward Modi. The US Embassy in India quoted him on X as saying: “India is house to one of many world’s oldest civilizations. It’s an incredible nation, and a vital strategic companion for America within the Indo-Pacific area. We now have an incredible pal in PM Modi.”
Commerce points additionally featured in subsequent leader-level conversations, together with US calls for for higher entry to Indian markets for agricultural produce reminiscent of corn and soybean. Modi later described one such name as “heat and interesting”.
Strategic imperatives, political unease
US lawmakers and analysts have warned that Trump’s strategy dangers undermining ties with India at a time when Washington sees New Delhi as central to balancing China.
“Companions like India are subsequently indispensable,” Vivek Mishra, Deputy Director of the Strategic Research Programme on the Observer Analysis Basis, advised TOI. However he added that this logic is constrained by a resurgent nationalist temper within the US that’s sceptical of advanced, multi-aligned partnerships.
“This stress displays a broader uncertainty in US overseas coverage—between realism, which acknowledges India’s strategic autonomy, and ideological nationalism, which calls for clearer strains of allegiance,” Mishra stated.
For India, nonetheless, the sign is obvious. Even amid commerce wars and political turbulence, Washington continues to view New Delhi as a pillar of the rising world order.
For now, India–US ties stay risky, formed by strategic necessity on one facet and home politics on the opposite. Whether or not the connection might be steadied will depend upon how each capitals navigate that contradiction.
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