WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. shoppers expressed elevated concern in regards to the financial system and jobs in November throughout a interval that encompassed the ultimate stretch of the nation’s longest federal authorities shutdown, vital inventory market volatility and uncertainty in regards to the nation’s labor market. Customers additionally reported a sharply decrease vacation spending estimate than they’d forecast in October.
Financial Confidence Drops to 17-Month Low
Gallup’s Financial Confidence Index (ECI) fell seven factors to -30 in November, the bottom since a -35 studying in July 2024. The decline displays barely worsening views on each parts of the index: People’ scores of present financial circumstances (as glorious, good, solely honest or poor) and their perceptions of whether or not the financial system is getting higher or getting worse.
- Twenty-one p.c of U.S. adults in November, down barely from 24% in October and the bottom share since March, described present financial circumstances as glorious or good. Against this, 40% now charge present circumstances as poor, in contrast with 37% in October.
- Fewer than three in 10 adults within the newest ballot, 27%, mentioned the financial system is getting higher, 4 share factors beneath the October studying and the bottom since July 2024. About two-thirds (68%) mentioned the financial system is getting worse.
The ECI has a theoretical vary of +100 to -100. The all-time excessive in Gallup’s pattern since 1992 is +56, recorded in January 2000, and the bottom is -72, in October 2008. Extra lately — inside the previous 5 years — the excessive level was +41 in February 2020, and the low was -58 in June 2022.
After two years of gradual enchancment from that inflation-fueled hunch, the index stood at -26 in October 2024. It then elevated to -14 in December, primarily pushed by Republicans’ newfound optimism in regards to the financial system after President Donald Trump was elected to a second time period, and was -19 when former President Joe Biden left workplace in January. Since then, the index ranged from -14 to -22 all through most of 2025 earlier than dipping to -23 in October and to -30 final month.
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Confidence in Labor Market Additionally Erodes
People’ views on the labor market additionally worsened in November, with 33% saying it’s a good time to discover a high quality job and 63% calling it a foul time. Optimism about jobs is down eight factors from the prior measure in August and is probably the most adverse Gallup has recorded for the reason that closing days of Trump’s first time period, in January 2021 throughout the pandemic.
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The most recent ballot was carried out Nov. 3-25, with about two-thirds of the interviews carried out earlier than the federal authorities shutdown ended on Nov. 12. Many of the interviews have been additionally carried out earlier than the discharge of the delayed September jobs report on Nov. 20, which confirmed stronger-than-expected employment development within the U.S. but additionally a slight rise within the unemployment charge, to 4.4%
Vacation Reward Budgets Contract by Document Quantity
Together with their heightened financial nervousness in November, shoppers expressed a lot much less of an urge for food for vacation present spending in contrast with earlier within the season. People now estimate they’ll spend a median $778 on Christmas or different vacation presents, down $229 from October’s $1,007. The determine can also be considerably beneath final yr’s November estimate of $1,012.
Customers typically trim their vacation spending plans because the season progresses, together with by greater than $40 in 11 of the 19 years since 2006 for which Gallup has each October and November readings. It has solely elevated by not less than $40 in 4. Nevertheless, this yr’s midseason decline is the biggest Gallup has recorded, surpassing the $185 drop seen throughout the 2008 international monetary disaster.
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Each high- and low-income People have pulled again significantly of their supposed spending on presents since October, whereas middle-income earners’ estimate is about the identical.
- People in households incomes $100,000 or extra now predict spending $1,230 on vacation presents, down from $1,479 in October and $1,578 in November 2024.
- These in households incomes lower than $50,000 have minimize their projected spending to $384, down from $651 in October and $607 final November.
- Center-income earners at the moment predict spending a median of $842, just like their October estimate of $847 and final yr’s $839.
Customers Nonetheless Reluctant to Say They Will ‘Spend Much less’
On the similar time, a query asking People how the quantity they plan to spend on presents this yr compares with their outlays in 2024 reveals shoppers aren’t absolutely embracing their very own spending warning.
Regardless of the historic contraction within the predicted vacation spending greenback quantity, solely 29% of People say they plan to spend lower than final yr. This studying is up modestly from 23% in October and from November 2024, however properly beneath the 46% recorded in November 2008. Fewer say they’ll spend extra (14% now vs. 19% in October and final yr), however the majority of People (53%) nonetheless say they’ll spend “about the identical.”
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Backside Line
Shopper attitudes in regards to the job market and total financial system slipped in November to their worst ranges in over a yr, seemingly chilling their gift-buying temper. Although now over, the protracted authorities shutdown, which delayed pay for federal employees and disrupted key profit packages, doubtless contributed to the dampened temper.
Customers’ newest common vacation spending estimate of $778 represents the sharpest year-over-year decline Gallup has recorded, even exceeding 2008 when vacation retail gross sales really contracted. But, with far fewer People right this moment than in 2008 saying they’ll spend lower than final yr, it’s attainable they aren’t as shaken because the greenback determine conveys.
Retailers might also hope that with the shutdown over, client attitudes and enthusiasm for vacation spending will rebound to their prior ranges. The general public would nonetheless be in a subpar financial mind-set — one which has contributed to Trump’s anemic job approval scores since June. However it might be sufficient to stop the 2025 vacation season from turning out like 2008.
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Study extra about how the Gallup Ballot Social Collection works. View full query responses and developments (PDF obtain).
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