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Invoice Connelly
It took some time for faculty soccer to orient itself this season. Three of the highest 4 groups within the preseason AP Prime 25 ballot began poorly, and just one actually recovered. 9 of the preseason prime 17 went 8-4 or worse. In the meantime, some groups that had been anticipated to be good — preseason No. 20 Indiana, No. 21 Ole Miss and No. 23 Texas Tech — turned out to be playoff-caliber dynamite.
Issues had been fairly messy for some time as the game figured itself out, however as soon as the hierarchy was established, it was established. Over the previous three weeks, groups ranked 14th or increased within the AP ballot have gone a mixed 35-3, and all three losses had been to opponents ranked sixteenth or increased.
The ACC and the teaching carousel did their finest to make sure that there was all the time one thing messy and/or chaotic occurring, however we have reached Championship Week with the steadiness of energy firmly set. Now we get to search out out if school soccer decides to supply one final burst of absolute nonsense. This is all the pieces you’ll want to observe throughout what’s prone to be both a really orderly or extremely fraught Championship Week.
All instances Japanese
Championship Week chaos eventualities
This weekend is principally organising like school soccer’s model of a type of “We are able to do that the straightforward means or the arduous means” moments in a mob film. If Texas Tech and Virginia win as favorites within the Huge 12 and ACC championship video games, respectively, and if Alabama beats Georgia because it nearly all the time does — since 2017, Kirby Sensible’s Bulldogs are 1-7 in opposition to the Crimson Tide and 107-8 in opposition to everybody else — then school soccer may have chosen the straightforward means.
If it unfolds that means, we’ll be capable of predict with close to certainty who can be within the Faculty Soccer Playoff. The at-large bids will go to present No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana (whichever loses the Huge Ten championship recreation), No. 3 Georgia, No. 5 Oregon, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 8 Oklahoma and both No. 10 Notre Dame or No. 12 Miami, relying on how a lot overthinking the playoff committee decides to undertake. Per SP+, nonetheless, there’s solely a 22% likelihood we get these three outcomes. And issues might get bizarre if we stray from the script.
(* If No. 11 BYU’s rating slips, due to this fact placing Notre Dame and Miami subsequent to one another within the rankings, the committee might determine to maneuver Miami forward due to the Hurricanes’ head-to-head win. It is what they have an inclination to do when groups with a head-to-head end result find yourself subsequent to one another. I personally assume that win is the one purpose Miami deserves to rank at the same time as excessive as twelfth — they’ve neither performed nor crushed every other ranked groups, and so they misplaced to 2 unranked groups in by far the worst of the ability conferences. Notre Dame’s résumé undoubtedly has comparable holes, however the committee had many weeks to rank Miami forward of Notre Dame and did not do it, and it could be impossibly foolish to do it after every week by which neither staff — and solely certainly one of their 2025 opponents — performed a single recreation. I am extraordinarily prepared to return to a BCS-like formulation.)
What if BYU beats Texas Tech (23% likelihood, per SP+)? Final yr, Clemson grew to become the primary official bid thief of the 12-team playoff period with its win over SMU within the ACC championship recreation. This yr, BYU seems to be the designated thief. The Cougars have misplaced solely to No. 4 Texas Tech and, at eleventh, might declare to have been slighted by the committee. They clearly have to win to get in, and in the event that they do, they’ll possible steal Notre Dame’s (or Miami’s?) ticket. The Combating Irish, who’ve received 10 straight video games by a mean of 43-14, had been ranked ninth for 3 straight weeks earlier than mysteriously slipping to tenth on Tuesday. That places them in line to get snubbed with a Huge 12 upset.
What if BYU wins and Alabama loses (13% likelihood)? Final season, SMU made the CFP regardless of shedding within the ACC championship recreation; from that, we derived that the committee had determined to not punish a staff for incomes a thirteenth recreation when others round it within the rankings had not. The Mustangs did fall from eighth to tenth, nonetheless. It wasn’t sufficient to knock them from the playoff subject, however they nonetheless dropped.
So what is going to occur if Alabama loses to Georgia, maybe by a strong margin? Will Bama fall behind Notre Dame? And if BYU has additionally received … will that imply the Cougars steal the Tide’s bid?
Tuesday’s rankings give us purpose to doubt that Bama would transfer in any respect, after all. In reality, the one actual justification for the Tide leaping Notre Dame this week is that the committee was giving itself a cushion in case of a Bama loss. There’s, in spite of everything, no universe by which the Tide beating 5-7 Auburn within the final minute was extra spectacular than Notre Dame beating 4-8 Stanford by 29, and I would not assume that A&M falling from third to seventh would make the Irish’s loss to the Aggies look considerably worse. Regardless, now the committee may not have to fret about eliminating Bama with a nasty efficiency in Atlanta. However what if BYU wins and the Tide lay an absolute egg?
What if Duke wins (32% likelihood)? BYU apart, Championship Week’s largest chaos agent is clearly Duke. Manny Diaz’s 7-5 Blue Devils eked out an ACC championship bid because of a set of tiebreakers that may nearly actually be redrawn quickly. They’re solely 3.5-point underdogs in opposition to Virginia, and a Blue Devils win might give a playoff ticket to a second Group of 5 champion. James Madison could be first in line, although an 11-2 UNLV staff can be intriguing if JMU loses and the Rebels lastly determine easy methods to beat Boise State for the Mountain West championship.
In fact, with the lengths the committee went to keep away from rating one other G5 staff moreover Tulane — JMU and North Texas did not make it in till this week, and barely at that — Duke itself might nonetheless merely hop JMU. The Blue Devils maintain about 4 groups’ playoff hopes of their upset-minded fingers.
And earlier than you complain about undeserving groups making the sphere, that is how playoffs work! Groups with unhealthy information attain the highschool playoffs on a regular basis. So do the champions of assorted lower-budget FCS, Division II or Division III conferences. 4 groups with shedding information have made the NFL playoffs since 2010. That is the best way it needs to be. We should always let extra convention champs in, really.
These are the chaos eventualities to look at for. Now let’s discuss in regards to the precise video games.
Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox
Again within the BCS days, the folks in cost would change the best way the pc rankings portion of the BCS formulation labored anytime they disagreed with the outcomes. Continually saying, “I do not like that, let’s change one thing” creates a worse course of as usually as not.
One yr into the 12-team playoff period, the faculty soccer world declared, “I do not like that, let’s change one thing.” When the “prime 4 convention champions obtain first-round byes” rule produced odd ends in 12 months 1 — specifically, byes going to No. 9 Boise State and No. 12 Arizona State — the title-winner byes had been instantly ditched. Consequently, we get essentially the most low-consequence No. 1 versus No. 2 December recreation conceivable. Barring an absolute blowout, Ohio State and Indiana are prone to obtain top-four seeds and first-round byes it doesn’t matter what occurs in Indianapolis on Saturday.
Now, Indiana is enjoying for its first Huge Ten title in 58 years; that is fairly large. Plus, since each quarterbacks, IU’s Fernando Mendoza and OSU’s Julian Sayin, are among the many three betting favorites within the Heisman race, it is arduous not to have a look at this recreation as a winner-take-all scenario for that award. (Root for a defensive slugfest, Diego Pavia!) However this may turn into the primary of two Hoosiers-Buckeyes video games, and the second can be a lot greater.
This one will nonetheless be instructional, although, and I’ve two big questions:
Will Indiana’s offensive line maintain up? In 2024, the Hoosiers misplaced to solely the 2 nationwide title recreation contributors, Ohio State and Notre Dame. In each video games, the IU protection principally held up, however the offense vanished: Whereas the Hoosiers averaged 464 yards in wins, they gained a complete of 429 yards within the two losses. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s damage limitations did not assist, however IU working backs averaged solely 4.0 yards per carry, and Rourke took eight sacks in 60 move makes an attempt.
This season, Indiana ranks first in dashing success price* and a strong thirty fifth in sack price allowed. Backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black maintain the Hoosiers on schedule, and Mendoza will get the ball out of his fingers rapidly. The offense carried out nicely sufficient in opposition to a pair of SP+ top-10 defenses (Iowa and Oregon), however Ohio State’s protection is the very best within the nation. How nicely will the Hoosiers maintain up, particularly up entrance?
(*Success price: How incessantly an offense is gaining 50% of vital yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Can Ohio State activate the explosiveness? Ryan Day and coordinator Brian Hartline have created a sturdy offensive construction for maximizing Sayin’s ridiculous accuracy and preserving the redshirt freshman out of awkward downs and distances. The Buckeyes function with one of many nation’s slowest tempos, and Sayin throws the ball as rapidly as potential. He has accomplished a report 78.9% of his passes, and with a good-not-great run recreation as a complement, Ohio State ranks second nationally in success and three-and-out charges.
The tradeoff, nonetheless, is a serious lack of huge performs.
The Buckeyes rank simply 111th in yards per profitable play (11.5), and whereas we all know all in regards to the epic expertise of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, Sayin very selectively seems to be deep. That retains each the destructive and big-play counts low.
Huge performs are the best way to attain on Indiana, nonetheless. The Hoosiers have allowed solely 11 offensive touchdowns this season: Six had been from 44 yards or longer, and two extra had been arrange by positive aspects of 40-plus. IU is fifth in success price allowed and ninth in sack price — the Hoosiers do not allow you to dink and dunk all the best way down the sphere. Can Ohio State create chunk performs with out exposing Sayin to hits and errors?
Present line: OSU -4 (down from -5.5 at open) | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.9 | FPI projection: IU by 0.1
Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC
If Alabama beats Georgia, we might find yourself with a scenario by which a) the extraordinarily top-heavy Huge Ten will get solely three CFP groups, however all of them get top-four seeds and first-round byes, and b) the SEC will get 5 groups, however none of them are within the prime 4. Granted, there’s additionally an opportunity that the committee surges Bama as much as fourth on this state of affairs, however primarily based on the season the SEC has had, “5 bids and no byes” could be apt. It at present has no top-five groups within the SP+ rankings, but it surely nonetheless has seven of the highest 13 and, comfortably, the very best common ranking.
In fact, for all of the discuss of parity inside this convention, we’re getting our fourth Bama-Georgia title recreation in eight years, and a Georgia win — the Dawgs are favored — can be its third title in 4 years. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même selected and whatnot.
Writing about Alabama this season has been a wierd expertise. The Crimson Tide have principally been “little issues” masters, proudly owning the purple zone on each ends, successful the sphere place and turnover battles and shutting video games out fantastically, going 4-1 in one-score video games. However they’ve additionally solely hardly ever regarded dominant regardless of the legion of former blue-chippers on their roster. They’ve ranked between ninth and twelfth in SP+ for the previous seven weeks, and in that span, they’ve performed nearly exactly to projections (which means that the rating is fairly correct).
They beat Georgia 10 weeks in the past, nonetheless, and that brings them again to Atlanta to face a Georgia staff that … has hardly ever dominated regardless of the legion of former blue-chippers on their roster. The Dawgs are additionally 4-1 in one-score finishes, and whereas they needed to lean closely on offense early within the season — they beat Tennessee 44-41 and beat Ole Miss 43-35 — they’ve allowed simply 22 complete factors of their previous three video games, a run that features their one really resounding efficiency, a 35-10 blowout of Texas.
Within the groups’ first assembly, two main habits got here to bear. Alabama, which ranks eighth nationally in factors per drive within the first half (and solely thirty third within the second), bolted to a 14-0 lead and led 24-14 at halftime. Within the second half, nonetheless, Georgia took management, tilting the sphere and making a pair of purple zone alternatives to Bama’s zero. A fourth-down cease within the fourth quarter, nonetheless, made the distinction in a 24-21 Tide win. For the sport, the Dawgs averaged 6.7 yards per play to Bama’s 5.2, however the Tide received 19 of 27 complete third downs and completed plus-1 in turnovers. That was simply sufficient.
This was certainly one of 5 video games by which Georgia took snaps whereas trailing within the second half. It was the one one the Dawgs did not win. For no matter their upside could be this yr, there’s by no means going to be any query about their capacity to brawl for 60 full minutes.
Georgia’s protection has rounded into type of late, however the Dawgs nonetheless face a clumsy matchup with the Tide offense, in that it defends the run much better than the move and Bama is glad to desert the run and put the sport in Ty Simpson‘s fingers. Regardless, the early going can be big: Georgia is extra skilled and simpler at enjoying from behind. And in the event you’re rooting for the “What occurs if Bama will get genuinely thumped?” state of affairs, Georgia going up early is an apparent the first step.
Present line: UGA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 2.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 0.3
Saturday, midday, ABC
I do not assume we have talked sufficient about how good Texas Tech is that this season. I imply, everybody is aware of the Pink Raiders are good — they’re 11-1, they’re fourth within the CFP rankings and defenders Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey are surefire All-People. They are not precisely flying underneath the radar. However whereas SP+ has locked in fairly nicely on most groups, it continues to underestimate Tech’s capabilities, even whereas rating it third nationally. The Pink Raiders overachieved in opposition to projections by a mean of 14.0 factors in November, successful 4 video games (together with one in opposition to BYU) by a mean of 42-9. In reality, the one time they’ve actually underachieved all season was of their 26-22 loss to Arizona State, after they had been with out beginning quarterback Behren Morton. They even managed to overachieve in three different partial or entire video games with out Morton. This can be a scary staff.
BYU has all of the motivation on this one, nonetheless, realizing that its playoff hopes at the moment are totally win or bust. (The Cougars may additionally get an “Our head coach simply selected us over Penn State” enhance.) Will that make a distinction? Or is Tech simply too rattling good?
BYU’s protection performed brilliantly within the groups’ first assembly, a 29-7 Tech win on Nov. 8. The Cougars held Tech to only a 33.3% success price, 13 share factors beneath its season common, and allowed the Pink Raiders simply two touchdowns in seven purple zone journeys. The rating was solely 13-0 at halftime, and wasted alternatives made it appear to be Tech could possibly be susceptible to a comeback, however the BYU offense simply could not ship. For almost the one time all season, BYU’s Bear Bachmeier regarded just like the true freshman he’s, throwing for simply 188 yards at 4.5 yards per dropback and shedding an interception and fumble. Given sufficient alternatives, Tech lastly put the sport away.
An upset would require the identical excessive stage of defensive play and much better execution on offense. Having working again LJ Martin at full power will assist — Martin was harm the week earlier than the primary matchup and gained simply 35 yards in 10 carries in opposition to Tech. His 222-yard efficiency two weeks in the past in opposition to Cincinnati suggests he is enjoying at a excessive stage, and BYU ought to get one other couple of just lately banged-up starters again as nicely. However we simply do not know what precisely will beat the Tech protection as a result of nearly nothing has.
The Pink Raiders have given up greater than 17 factors simply twice all season and solely allowed one staff, Kansas State, to prime 4.8 yards per play (the Wildcats averaged a nonetheless pedestrian 5.2). BYU may be capable of maintain Tech underneath 28 factors with one other robust effort, but it surely may take the very best efficiency of Bachmeier’s life to hit 28 or extra.
Present line: Tech -12.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 11.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 4.3
Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC
As enjoyable as it has been to ascertain wild eventualities which may unfold if Duke wins the ACC, Virginia might put an finish to all of this creativity by merely repeating what occurred the final time the Cavaliers met the Blue Devils. Three weeks in the past, they put collectively in all probability their most full efficiency of the season in a 34-17 romp.
Success price: Virginia 40.3%, Duke 31.0%
Yards per play: Virginia 7.0, Duke 4.4
Subject place margin: Virginia plus-6.7 per drive
Third downs: Virginia 12-19, Duke 4-15
Sacks: Virginia 4, Duke 0
Turnovers: Virginia 2, Duke 1
UVA performed way more environment friendly ball than the Blue Devils, loved eight positive aspects of 20-plus yards to Duke’s three and received 23 of 34 complete third downs (67%). The one purpose the sport completed as shut as 17 factors was due to two Hoos turnovers, certainly one of which was a pick-six.
Virginia has been the higher staff in 2025, however these groups’ first recreation was a little bit of an outlier. UVA’s seasonlong averages aren’t fairly as advantageous, and Duke’s offense has been particularly robust down the stretch. The Blue Devils have scored greater than 30 factors in 4 of the previous 5 video games (UVA being the exception), and Darian Mensah completed the common season first within the ACC in passing yards and third in Whole QBR.
Mensah has been a high-volume, high-accuracy playmaker, and Duke has improved from 71st to twenty third in offensive SP+ in a single season.
Sadly for Duke, the protection has fallen from thirty first to 91st. Towards seven top-60 offenses this season, together with Virginia’s, Duke allowed 36.4 factors per recreation. Virginia’s offensive manufacturing trailed off over the again half of the season, however the Hoos nonetheless torched the Blue Devils: Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards, Trell Harris caught eight balls for 161 yards and J’Mari Taylor rushed for 133 yards in 18 carries.
Mensah and receivers Cooper Barkate and Que’Sean Brown torched Clemson and Wake Forest — defenses that grade out about in addition to UVA’s — and Duke might completely flip this right into a monitor meet. However Virginia in all probability has the benefit in a monitor meet too.
Present line: UVA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 7.3 | FPI projection: UVA by 1.5
Friday, 8 p.m., ABC
With 4 of 5 Group of 5 title video games going down Friday night time, we’ll have a transparent view of the stakes of Virginia-Duke by Saturday morning. But it surely’s protected to imagine that the winner of this recreation, pitting two ranked groups with soon-departing head coaches (UNT’s Oklahoma State-bound Eric Morris and Tulane’s Florida-bound Jon Sumrall) in doubtlessly very wet circumstances, is in.
For the entire cash being thrown round to stars in at the moment’s school soccer panorama, the very best offense within the nation, per SP+, was crafted in Denton, Texas, and incorporates a true freshman (RB Caleb Hawkins), a redshirt freshman who did not begin in highschool (QB Drew Mestemaker) and transfers from Kent State, Abilene Christian, Shepherd College and the now-closed Limestone College. North Texas is averaging 46.8 factors and 511.8 yards; the Imply Inexperienced have topped 50 factors seven instances and even scored 36 of their lone loss.
The Imply Inexperienced’s schedule, nonetheless, has lacked. They’ve performed just one staff at present ranked increased than 57th in SP+ (South Florida), and so they misplaced to the Bulls by 27 factors. Granted, that margin was principally because of the worst center eight of all time — USF went on a 28-0 run between the 0:02 mark of the second quarter and 11:35 of the third — but it surely nonetheless counts, and UNT hasn’t had one other likelihood to show itself in opposition to a very good opponent.
Tulane is nice. Granted, the Inexperienced Wave have allowed 38.5 factors per recreation and seven.1 yards per play to the one two top-20 offenses they’ve confronted. However they’re enhancing on D — they solidly overachieved in opposition to defensive projections down the stretch — and so they have an offense that may sustain in a monitor meet: They’re tenth nationally in passing success price, with Jake Retzlaff combining 2,717 passing yards with a strong 621 non-sack dashing yards.
Neither of those defenses is superb, however neither provides up a ton of huge performs both. This one will in all probability come all the way down to which protection permits the fewest large pictures and straightforward factors
Present line: UNT -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 8.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 2.0
Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN
Troy has reached the Solar Belt championship recreation by means of sheer perseverance. Gerad Parker’s Trojans received three straight wild one-score video games early within the season. In addition they overcame an early-season QB damage, with Tucker Kilcrease filling in for Goose Crowder, who’s again within the lineup and slinging the ball round nicely. Good move protection and random offensive spurts have given them an opportunity at a 3rd Solar Belt title in 4 years.
The percentages, after all, aren’t nice. JMU did lose 4 instances as a favourite final yr, and distractions can all the time strike when your coach is leaving, however Troy is a three-touchdown underdog, and JMU can be attempting to find type factors in super-chilly Harrisonburg.
JMU’s protection ranks first in success price allowed and has allowed greater than 5.1 yards per play simply as soon as all season. They boast difference-makers at every stage, from defensive ends Sahir West and Aiden Gobaira up entrance to security Jacob Thomas within the again. The offense was surprisingly inconsistent early in 2025 however ignited in opposition to Previous Dominion and hasn’t regarded again: Of their previous six video games, the Dukes have averaged 48.5 factors and seven.4 yards per play. Alonza Barnett is 14th nationally in Whole QBR in that span, distributing the ball fantastically to 5 totally different move catchers.
The one shut name JMU has suffered because the offensive ignition got here in opposition to Washington State: The Cougars saved the tempo at a crawl, received third and fourth downs and restricted the Dukes to only 50 snaps. It nonetheless did not work — JMU scored on two lengthy second-half touchdowns and received 24-20. But when Troy pulls a scare, it is going to be from an analogous recipe. The Trojans can land some pictures defensively, and so they’re fairly good on third down and prepared on fourth. However the margin for error right here is minimal.
Present line: JMU -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: JMU by 20.2 | FPI projection: JMU by 18.4
Friday, 8 p.m., Fox
Because the begin of 2023, UNLV is 30-10 total, an unimaginable run for a program with minimal historic success. The Rebels have gone 5-3 in opposition to energy convention packages in that span, and so they’re 18-7 within the Mountain West. Simply think about how nice issues could be if they may really beat Boise State: The Rebels are 0-4 in opposition to the Broncos on this span, together with losses in back-to-back MWC championship video games. If momentum means something on this sport, nonetheless — I usually doubt it does — and the Rebels can adapt to chilly and wet circumstances in Boise, the timing may lastly be proper.
5 weeks in the past, this matchup appeared unlikely. UNLV had misplaced two straight video games, giving up 96 mixed factors to Boise State and New Mexico and falling to 123rd in defensive SP+. BSU, in the meantime, had simply misplaced quarterback Maddux Madsen to damage and had fallen 30-7 to Fresno State. The Broncos would lose to San Diego State of their subsequent recreation, too.
BSU quarterback Max Cutforth discovered his footing, nonetheless, and helped to guide a blowout of Colorado State and a comeback win at Utah State. UNLV, in the meantime, out of the blue discovered a protection and beat its previous 4 convention opponents by a mean of 38-16. The Rebels have regarded so good that they rose from 71st to forty first in SP+ in simply 4 weeks.
Madsen, who’s scheduled to return Friday, threw for 253 yards and 4 touchdowns in BSU’s 56-31 win over UNLV in Week 8, whereas Dylan Riley rushed for 201 yards in simply 15 carries. Even within the Rebels’ improved state, they nonetheless aren’t defending the run nicely. UNLV can sustain in most monitor meets, and holding the Broncos underneath 35 will give it an opportunity. However which may not be assured.
Present line: BSU -4.5 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 0.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 4.0
Friday, 7 p.m., CBSSN
For the second straight season, a second-year FBS program will play for the CUSA title. Final yr, second-year Jacksonville State wiped the ground with Western Kentucky; now Kennesaw State provides it a go in opposition to the champs.
Jerry Mack’s first KSU staff has discovered success by elevating its flooring: The Owls do not rank excessive in most of the classes I monitor, however they’re additionally close to the underside in nearly none. They defend the run nicely — linebacker Baron Hopson is ridiculously good on this division — they hit on some deep passes to Gabriel Benyard and Christian Moss, and so they wait so that you can make errors.
JSU misplaced a ton from final yr’s convention title squad, however after a wobbly 3-3 begin, the Gamecocks discovered an offensive rhythm by working the hell out of the ball: Cam Prepare dinner has rushed for 1,588 yards, and never together with sacks, quarterback Caden Creel has added 1,008. The protection is first rate however clutch offensive play has allowed the Gamecocks to win six of seven video games regardless of 5 ending inside one rating.
These two met three weeks in the past in a recreation determined by large performs and turnovers. Jax State scored on a second-quarter Hail Mary, Creel produced completions of fifty and 52 yards (plus a 40-yard rush), and the Gamecocks picked off three passes within the purple zone in a 35-26 win. None of that is significantly sustainable, although, particularly since KSU has been the higher total purple zone staff in 2025.
Present line: KSU -2.5 (flipped from JSU -1.5) | SP+ projection: KSU by 1.4 | FPI projection: KSU by 0.3
Saturday, midday, ESPN
Miami is enjoying within the MAC championship recreation for the third straight season — the Redhawks received in 2023 and misplaced final yr — whereas WMU is having fun with its finest marketing campaign, and first title recreation look, since 2016.
Chuck Martin’s Redhawks misplaced principally each offensive starter and half the protection after final season and landed only some main contributors from the switch portal. However they received rolling after an 0-3 begin, and when quarterback Dequan Finn left this system in November, redshirt freshman Thomas Gotkowski took over and led snug wins over Buffalo and Ball State.
WMU additionally began 0-3, however the Broncos have since received eight of 9 — shedding solely to Miami, in truth. Thanks partially to otherworldly exterior linebacker Nadame Tucker (18.5 TFLs, 12 sacks, 4 pressured fumbles), their protection ranks forty sixth in defensive SP+, their highest rating since 2000.
Miami turned the tables late of their Week 9 matchup. WMU took a 17-9 lead into the fourth quarter, however the Redhawks outgained the Broncos 160-61 within the fourth, pressured a turnover and completed the sport on a 17-0 run. Gotkowski has gotten away with principally fast passes to the sideline, however the Redhawks may want him to ramp up the playmaking to take care of their Week 9 benefits. In any other case WMU might seize its first title in 9 years.
Present line: WMU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 1.2 | FPI projection: WMU by 0.2
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shout-out for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. The smaller-school playoffs are hitting prime velocity, so this is a recreation it’s best to monitor at every stage.
Division II quarterfinals: No. 16 Newberry at No. 13 Albany State (ESPN+, 1 p.m.). The Division II quarterfinals function projected blowout wins for the three finest groups — Ferris State, Harding and Kutztown — however the final semifinal spot will go to certainly one of two upstarts.
Each Albany State and Newberry are in search of their first D-II semifinal look. ASU is the projected favourite due to defensive finish Derrick Drayton and a protection that enables simply 13.3 factors per recreation. Newberry, nonetheless, simply upset No. 4 West Florida because of 416 passing yards and two touchdowns from quarterback Reed Charpia. Do the Wolves have one other upset in them?
SP+ projection: Albany State by 7.3
Division III spherical of 16: No. 6 Saint John’s (Minn.) at No. 4 Wisconsin-River Falls (1 p.m., ESPN+). Saint John’s has been to just one semifinal since successful the 2003 D-III nationwide title, however the Johnnies are flying because of quarterback Trey Feeney and an offense averaging 50.4 factors per recreation. UWRF, in the meantime, is on the lookout for its first quarterfinal look in 30 years, and Kaleb Blaha and the Falcons additionally wing the ball round like loopy and rating a lot of factors (47.5 PPG)! Monitor meet in River Falls!
SP+ projection: Johnnies by 1.4
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 7 Lindsey Wilson at No. 1 Grand View (1 p.m., native streaming). It is the No. 1 staff within the NAIA polls vs. the No. 1 staff in NAIA SP+. Grand View is NAIA’s commonplace bearer; the Vikings are the defending nationwide champions and have gone a cool 83-5 since 2019. The protection permits 8.4 factors per recreation because of ace move rusher Jackson Filer (23 TFLs, 11 sacks). However Lindsey Wilson is scoring 44.8 factors per recreation with absurd run-pass steadiness. And there is a likelihood of afternoon snow in Des Moines!
SP+ projection: LWU by 1.5
FCS spherical of 16: No. 18 South Dakota State at No. 4 Montana (2 p.m., ESPN+). So is South Dakota State out of the blue South Dakota State once more? The Jackrabbits wanted a miracle end in opposition to North Dakota to guarantee themselves a spot within the playoffs, however with quarterback Chase Mason wholesome and again within the lineup, they crushed New Hampshire 41-3 in final week’s first spherical. Mason’s in-season damage may find yourself being Montana’s misfortune — SDSU is unbeaten when he begins, and now the Grizzlies must beat the Jacks simply to succeed in the quarterfinals. Fortunately they’ve quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat and a fairly improbable offense themselves.
SP+ projection: Montana by 5.6
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