Now we have reached the ultimate Champions League week of the calendar yr.
Issues stay as tight as ever, with solely three factors separating second-placed Paris Saint-Germain from 14th-placed Galatasaray heading into the sixth matchweek of the league section.
Loads of twists and turns are doubtless, however now could be the time for groups to safe their probabilities of a top-eight end and keep away from an additional two video games within the last-16 play-off spherical (between ninth and twenty fourth).
Utilizing The Athletic’s projections — powered by Opta knowledge — we select 5 key matches which may have a big impression throughout the desk this week.
Sure graphics on this web page could also be affected by ad-blocking software program. If parts of the web page seem clean and an advert blocker is enabled, please disable the advert blocker and refresh the web page to make sure full entry to the content material.
Bayern Munich vs Sporting CP (Tuesday 5:45pm GMT/12:45pm ET)
Bayern relinquished their good report in matchweek 5, with a 3-1 loss to Arsenal, permitting Mikel Arteta’s facet to tug away within the race for high spot.
You’d strongly suspect Vincent Kompany’s males will get again to profitable methods of their house sport in opposition to Sporting CP, however the Portuguese champions have had an excellent marketing campaign in Europe, presently sitting eighth within the league desk after 5 video games.
In fact, Sporting have had a reasonably straightforward fixture listing, with victories over Kairat Almaty, Marseille and Membership Brugge boosting their qualification possibilities, however Rui Borges’ facet have factors on the board to place the stress on the established elite.
Sporting will arrive in Germany off the again of a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Lisbon rivals Benfica on the weekend, and are undefeated in all competitions since their 2-1 loss to Napoli within the Champions League greater than two months in the past.
The issue is that Bayern’s defeat by Arsenal was their solely one of many season, they usually have been devastating going ahead within the opening months of the marketing campaign. Harry Kane’s hat-trick in opposition to Stuttgart made it 17 targets in 13 Bundesliga video games, with Bayern having a purpose distinction of +40 within the league already. For context, the following highest is RB Leipzig on +15.
Per Opta’s mannequin, Bayern have a 93 per cent probability of progressing straight into the spherical of 16. Nonetheless, with issues so tight on the high of the desk, an excellent end result for Sporting would increase their very own prospects, given their 18 per cent probabilities of computerized qualification and a difficult conflict with Paris Saint-Germain arising.
Bayern’s remaining fixtures: Union Saint-Gilloise (H), PSV (A)
Sporting CP’s remaining fixtures: PSG (H), Athletic Membership (A)
Inter vs Liverpool (Tuesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
Inter are sitting fairly in fourth place with 12 factors from their opening 5 video games, even when their opening 4 clashes have been in opposition to these within the decrease echelons of the desk (Ajax, Slavia Prague, Union Saint-Gilloise and Kairat).
A 2-1 loss to Atletico Madrid in gameweek 5 has halted their momentum, and upcoming fixtures in opposition to Liverpool, Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund will likely be greater assessments of their European credentials. Nonetheless, Cristian Chivu’s males have a 65 per cent probability of computerized development to the spherical of 16 — the fifth-highest of all league-phase groups.
Because it usually has been, Inter’s power lies of their defensive basis, with simply three targets conceded in Europe to this point — solely Arsenal (one) have conceded fewer. Final season’s finalists have gained 10 of their previous 11 Champions League group video games at house, and will likely be brimming with confidence after a 4-0 thumping of Como on the weekend, putting them only one level behind leaders Napoli in Serie A.
For Liverpool, Tuesday’s sport is now dominated by the remarks made by Mohamed Salah after their 3-3 draw with Leeds United final weekend, compounding the stress on head coach Arne Slot, who has been unable to stem the circulation of Liverpool’s leaky defence. Saturday’s draw made it 11 targets conceded of their previous 5 video games in all competitions, which is hardly the hallmark of reigning Premier League champions.
A 4-1 house loss to PSV Eindhoven undid a variety of laborious work in climbing the Champions League desk after a 1-0 victory over Actual Madrid in gameweek 4, with Liverpool thirteenth going into the ultimate three league video games.
A 29 per cent probability of a top-eight end is sweet however not nice, though an away victory at San Siro would go an extended strategy to getting Slot’s European marketing campaign again on monitor.
Inter remaining fixtures: Arsenal (H), Borussia Dortmund (A)
Liverpool remaining fixtures: Marseille (A), Qarabag (H)
Atalanta vs Chelsea (Tuesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
On paper, an away journey to Bergamo needs to be an easy job for Chelsea, provided that Atalanta have posted 4 losses of their previous 5 Serie A video games.
New supervisor Raffaele Palladino arrived final month to halt the membership’s downward spiral, though issues look comparably optimistic in Europe with 10 factors and only one loss from their opening 5 video games — holding a clear sheet in every of their previous three matches.
With that return, Opta’s mannequin provides them a lower than one per cent probability of ending within the backside eight of the league and being eradicated, with a play-off place wanting most definitely for the Italian facet (72 per cent probability).
The issue for Chelsea is that there’s an inconsistency that has undermined their very own progress at occasions this season. They confirmed they’re able to beating Barcelona of their final European sport, however a 2-2 draw in opposition to Qarabag was as irritating because the scoreline advised.
Final week’s loss to Leeds United and Saturday’s goalless draw with Bournemouth imply Chelsea usually are not precisely in red-hot kind, however an Opta-projected end of 15 factors ought to land them within the top-eight locations to achieve computerized qualification, which shouldn’t be scoffed at.
The Athletic’s simulated match prediction mannequin suggests the most definitely scoreline will likely be a 1-1 attract Bergamo. With the week that Palladino and his Chelsea counterpart Enzo Maresca have had, you’d suspect each would shake fingers on that end result.
Chelsea remaining fixtures: Pafos (H), Napoli (A)
Atalanta remaining fixtures: Athletic Membership (H), Union SG (A)
Actual Madrid vs Manchester Metropolis (Wednesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
One of many advantages of the brand new Champions League format is that you’ll frequently get league-phase clashes that will not be misplaced within the latter levels of the event.
Actual Madrid vs Manchester Metropolis is precisely that form of sport, with the pair dealing with one another for the fifth consecutive season. In uncooked phrases, it’s fifth versus ninth within the league standings, however simply two factors separate the edges, with Metropolis having the chance to leapfrog Madrid with a victory on the Bernabeu.
Metropolis have been quietly within the ascendancy in latest weeks, transferring to only two factors off high spot within the Premier League after a 3-0 victory over Sunderland. Nevertheless, Pep Guardiola’s facet will nonetheless hand over possibilities this season, conceding 4 targets of their 5-4 victory over Fulham and dropping 2-0 of their most up-to-date Champions League tie, in opposition to Bayer Leverkusen.
A projected fifth-placed end (16 factors) ought to see Metropolis comfortably progress through the automated spots, however that defensive vulnerability is probably going why they nonetheless solely have an eight per cent probability of profitable the competitors, per Opta’s mannequin.
Actual Madrid’s predicted likelihood is no higher, with only a seven per cent probability of lifting the trophy subsequent summer season. Sitting second in La Liga, Xabi Alonso’s facet have gained simply as soon as of their previous 5 league video games, with a 2-0 house loss to Celta Vigo creating additional stress in an already-fraught ambiance on the Bernabeu.
Defensive harm struggles haven’t helped them in latest video games, however Wednesday’s fixture has an added layer of significance to Alonso as he seems to be to get his new facet again on monitor.
Per The Athletic’s match prediction mannequin, a 1-1 draw seems to be the most definitely primarily based on how each side have carried out in Europe this season.
Actual Madrid remaining fixtures: Monaco (H), Benfica (A)
Manchester Metropolis remaining fixtures: Bodo/Glimt (A), Galatasaray (H)
Juventus vs Pafos (Wednesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
Pafos have been one of many nice surprises of this yr’s league section, with one win, three attracts and only a single loss giving them six factors from their opening 5 video games.
Except for a 5-1 thumping by Bayern Munich, respectable attracts with Olympiacos, Kairat and Monaco have saved the resilience excessive to sit down alongside their victory over Villarreal, with 38-year-old David Luiz turning into the second-oldest Champions League goalscorer of their most up-to-date conflict in gameweek 5.
By the way, Juventus have an an identical report to the Cypriot champions coming into this sport, which means one workforce has the prospect to tug away from the opposite with a victory this week. Unsurprisingly, it’s Luciano Spalletti’s facet who’ve the higher probability of development from the league section, with Opta’s mannequin giving Juventus an 84 per cent probability of ending within the play-off positions after gameweek eight.
Spalletti has injected loads of optimism into the Juventus fanbase since he took over from Igor Tudor on the finish of October. Up till a irritating 2-1 loss to Napoli on the weekend, his facet have been undefeated beneath his management and will likely be trying to regain momentum of their house sport on Wednesday.
Pafos’ 42 per cent probability of clinging to a play-off spot shouldn’t be too promising, but when they’ll get an unlikely end in Turin, then it might proceed the feel-good story of this yr’s league section marketing campaign.
Juventus remaining fixtures: Benfica (H), Monaco (A)
Pafos remaining fixtures: Chelsea (A), Slavia Praha (H)
Leave a Reply