Bajaj Finance Soars 50% Year-to-Date; Analysts Predict Further 14% Upside

Bajaj Finance shares have rallied nearly 50 per cent in 2025 so far. However, the stock was trading lower on Monday. At 12:07 PM, the share price stood at Rs 1,030, down Rs 18 or 1.72 per cent. The stock opened at Rs 1,048 and hit a high of Rs 1,049.80. The market cap is Rs 6.40 lakh crore. The stock has a 52-week high of Rs 1,102.50 and a low of Rs 679.20.

JPMorgan has maintained a Neutral rating on Bajaj Finance. The brokerage has a target price of Rs 1,040. It said that valuations remain rich and could cap near-term upside.

Morgan Stanley remains positive on Bajaj Finance. The brokerage maintained an Overweight rating with a target price of Rs 1,195. This implies an upside of almost 14 per cent from the current market price. The firm said that Bajaj Finance is focusing on AI to boost productivity and reduce credit risk. Updated AUM and PAT guidance is expected with Q3 results.

Brokerages highlighted the company’s long-term strategy. Bajaj Finance aims to increase its share of the total credit market to 3.2–3.5 per cent by FY30, from 2.8 per cent now. The target for retail credit market share is 3.6–4 per cent.

The company wants to deepen product penetration. It aims to take products per customer to 6.5–7.5, from 6.05 currently. Brokerages said this will support:

– Strong disbursement and AUM growth.

– Lower customer acquisition costs.

– A 15–20 basis point decline in credit costs.

Based on the company’s own projections, FY30 guidance implies around 21.6 per cent AUM CAGR and 23.9 per cent net profit CAGR over FY26–30. This follows a strong performance over FY08–25, when AUM grew at 35 per cent CAGR and net profit at 48 per cent CAGR.

Bajaj Finance reported a PAT of Rs 4,875 crore for the quarter. This was up 22 per cent year-on-year but slightly below market expectations of Rs 4,969 crore. Net interest income rose 22 per cent to Rs 10,785 crore. Net total income increased 20 per cent to Rs 13,170 crore. PPOP rose 21 per cent to Rs 8,874 crore.

The company has revised its FY26 AUM growth guidance to 22–23 per cent, from 24–25 per cent earlier. Management cited stress in MSME and captive two- and three-wheeler portfolios. The firm has turned cautious in these segments.

Bajaj Finance booked 1.22 crore new loans in the quarter, up 26 per cent from 97 lakh in Q2FY25. The customer franchise rose to 11.06 crore, up 20 per cent year-on-year. The company added 41.3 lakh new customers in the July–September period.