December 15, 2025
SEOUL – South Korea’s semiconductor and show industries are set to be clear winners in 2026, pushed by surging international funding in synthetic intelligence infrastructure, whereas petrochemicals, metal and building will stay below sustained stress amid China’s rising manufacturing dominance and chronic commerce uncertainty, a enterprise survey confirmed Sunday.
In its “2026 Trade Outlook,” the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Trade surveyed 11 main trade associations and labeled sectors utilizing a weather-style forecast to sign relative efficiency subsequent yr.
Semiconductors and shows had been rated “clear,” indicating sturdy progress prospects, as AI information facilities gasoline demand for high-bandwidth reminiscence chips and high-specification panels. Batteries, bio, cars, shipbuilding and textiles had been assessed as “principally clear,” suggesting average however constructive momentum. In distinction, equipment, petrochemicals, metal and building had been labeled “cloudy,” pointing to weak or constrained outlooks.
“China’s manufacturing competitiveness is strengthening at a speedy tempo, placing stress on all home industries,” stated Lee Jong-myung, head of commercial innovation at KCCI.
“Sustained, aggressive experimentation by firms centered on AI, supported by daring regulatory reform and incentives shall be essential within the coming yr.”
Chip exports are anticipated to rise 16.3 % this yr to $165 billion, adopted by an extra 9.1 % improve in 2026 to $180 billion, pushed by rising demand for high-value DRAM utilized in AI information facilities, the survey confirmed.
KCCI underscored that international expertise firms together with Microsoft, Amazon and Google mother or father Alphabet are projected to speculate about $100 billion in AI infrastructure in 2026 alone, with spending anticipated to go additional in subsequent years.
The show trade was additionally forecast to stay sturdy, with exports projected to extend 3.9 % on-year to $17.67 billion in 2026, supported by rising demand for power-efficient natural light-emitting diode panels amid greater machine specs.
The Korea Show Trade Affiliation stated international OLED shipments for automotive shows and extended-reality gadgets had been anticipated to leap 83.3 and 238.5 %, respectively, subsequent yr.
Batteries had been rated “principally clear,” with exports projected to develop 2.9 % in 2026, supported by rising ESS demand from power-hungry AI servers. Electrical automobile battery demand can also be anticipated to rebound as new fashions utilizing Korean batteries are launched by automakers together with Hyundai Motor, Kia and BMW.
The KCCI, nevertheless, considered that the rising dangers from China and a scaling again of advantages from the US Superior Manufacturing Manufacturing Credit score stay draw back components. Chinese language battery-makers accounted for greater than 77 % of worldwide market share in 2025, with their share in non-Chinese language markets rising to 46.5 %, overtaking Korean companies, accounting for 38.7 %, for the primary time.
The bio sector is anticipated to profit from expanded home contract growth and manufacturing capability and potential spillover demand from US biosecurity insurance policies, with greater prospects for large-scale outsourcing contracts, the report stated.
Vehicle manufacturing is forecast to rise 1.2 % to 4.13 million autos in 2026, whereas exports are anticipated to extend 1.1 % to 2.75 million models, supported by new EV crops coming on-line in Ulsan and Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province.
The Korea Vehicle & Mobility Affiliation famous that whereas the export circumstances have improved following the easing of US tariffs to fifteen % from 25 %, the speedy international market share positive factors of Chinese language automakers pose a significant risk.
“We want authorities’s assist together with incentives to spice up home manufacturing, to counter China’s low-price offensive,” KAMA stated.
Shipbuilding exports are projected to climb 8.6 % to $33.92 billion, led by liquefied pure gasoline carriers and container ships, though uncertainty stays over the tempo of transition to low-carbon vessels following delays in worldwide emissions guidelines.
Petrochemicals are anticipated to see exports fall 6.1 % in 2026 resulting from Chinese language oversupply and weak costs, though capability reductions in Europe and China might regularly ease the glut, KCCI stated.
Metal exports are forecast to say no 2.1 %, weighed down by Chinese language competitors and tighter import controls within the US and EU.
Equipment exports are anticipated to fall 3.7 %, reflecting uncertainty linked to US tariff insurance policies below the Donald Trump administration, though demand from Center Jap plant tasks might restrict the downturn.
Development was rated “cloudy,” as excessive rates of interest, tighter mission financing and rising labor and security prices proceed to constrain non-public funding, partially offset by elevated public infrastructure spending.
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