Going towards the frequent notion that incidents of stubble-burning have dipped, consultants at Isro, India’s premier house company, recommend that farmers have modified the timing of beginning farm fires to dodge monitoring satellites. Not simply that. An professional from Nasa has claimed that an aerosol research exhibits 2025 because the third-worst in 15 years.
To grasp the phenomenon, attempt to think about eyes within the sky monitoring the agricultural fields. Solely that the eyes don’t preserve a continuing watch over the fields — like a geostationary satellite tv for pc would — however solely twice in 24 hours. If one knew when these sun-synchronous polar orbiting satellites scanned the areas, they might have the ability to evade their gaze. That is what appears to have occurred in Punjab and Haryana.
“Our evaluation exhibits a gradual shift in peak hearth exercise from 13.30 IST in 2020 to 17.00 IST in 2024, to keep away from detection by polar-orbiting satellites,” mentioned the 4 researchers of the House Purposes Centre of Indian House Analysis Organisation (ISRO) in Ahmedabad.
Hiren Jethva, a Morgan State College atmospheric scientist primarily based at Nasa’s Goddard House Flight Heart, additionally mentioned one thing comparable. “Claims of ‘92% discount’ in Punjab’s crop fires are false/deceptive — they depend on NASA-NOAA satellites that miss most late-afternoon fires. Virtually everybody is aware of the narrative,” Jethavi posted on X on December 1.
The scientist mentioned whereas the variety of hearth incidents detected had gone down, air pollution did not present any lower. “A 15-year document of smoke aerosol loading places 2025 because the third-worst yr, after 2019 and 2024,” Jethva added.
In reality, an India Right now TV floor investigation in Punjab too revealed farmers’ ways to dodge the satellites.
Nevertheless, the federal government appears to imagine that farm-fire circumstances within the two states had come down in 2025.
Union Surroundings Minister Bhupender Yadav mentioned within the Lok Sabha on December 2 that there was a 90% discount in farm hearth incidents in Punjab and Haryana in 2025 in comparison with the variety of circumstances in 2022.
Winter paddy harvesting, and thereby stubble burning, takes place from September 15 to November 30.
Stubble-burning in Haryana and Punjab is among the many contributors, turning the air poisonous in Delhi-NCR in November-December yearly.
So, the total narrative that there was a major lower in farm fires in Haryana and Punjab, they usually cannot be blamed for the poor AQI of Delhi-NCR, has been challenged by research by the Isro scientists and the Nasa researcher.
ISRO SCIENTISTS SAY FARMERS DODGING SATELLITES BY SHIFTING FARM-FIRE TIME
Geostationary satellites orbit the Earth at a better altitude and canopy a selected space continuously. In distinction, polar-orbiting satellites scan an space solely twice in 24 hours.
The polar-orbiting satellites “usually cross the equator at roughly between 10.30 am/pm and 1.30 am/pm native time”, the Isro researchers famous of their paper printed on November 25 within the journal Present Science.
For his or her research, the Isro researchers used Toeteosat Second Technology (MSG) geostationary satellites. They seen a change in timing in peak hearth exercise.
“In 2020, fires usually ignited round midday, peaked close to 13.30 IST, and subsided by 15.30 IST… We observe a gradual temporal shift between 2021 and 2024, with peak hearth exercise occurring round 17.00 IST in 2024,” they wrote.
“On the identical time, the diurnal window of fireside exercise narrowed considerably, suggesting an knowledgeable adjustment by farmers to keep away from detection by polar-orbiting sensors,” they added.
The findings by the Isro scientists spotlight a vital hole in present hearth monitoring practices.
“Underestimation of energetic hearth occasions throughout October-November in Punjab and Haryana can result in a considerable underestimation of carbon emissions,” their paper cautions.
NASA SCIENTIST SPOKE ABOUT FARMERS DELAYING PEAK FIRE ACTIVITY IN 2024
Distant-sensing scientists began noticing the surprising discrepancy — the variety of stubble-burning incidents detected by satellites in Punjab and Haryana dipped although the skies remained smoky and several other states remained smog-enveloped. That is what led them to start out their analysis.
“We’re seeing a lower in hearth exercise detected by MODIS and VIIRS [polar-orbiting satellites], however not within the quantity of smoke within the air,” Jethva mentioned in November 2024. He mentioned it “appears more and more probably” that farmers had been burning stubble after the satellites had scanned the area within the afternoon.
Information collected by GEO-KOMPSAT-2A, a South Korean geostationary satellite tv for pc, backed his concept on farmers suspending the timing of peak hearth exercise.
For 2025, Jethva mentioned whereas farm fires remained steady in Haryana, they spiked in Punjab.
He mentioned, for Punjab, “2025 fires are 23–57% greater than in 2019, 2020 and 2024.”. “Late-afternoon burning peaked in 2025,” he added. For Haryana, Jethva mentioned farm fires had “stayed comparatively steady during the last 5 years” with circumstances ranging between 23,000 to twenty-eight,000.
That is what the India Right now TV floor investigation within the final week of November this yr in Punjab discovered too.
Vipin, a land data officer and president of the Sangrur Block Patwari Union, admitted to advising farmers to burn stubble after 4 pm to keep away from satellite tv for pc detection.
Amarjeet Singh, an agricultural officer in Sangrur, mentioned, “Satellites move twice a day, overlaying Punjab in about 10 minutes. Farmers know this and burn stubble after 4 pm to keep away from detection.”
It appears that evidently the timing of the satellite tv for pc scanning Punjab is now a standard information, which has made farmers delay peak farm hearth exercise.
WHY INDIAN GOVT SAYS FARM FIRES IN PUNJAB, HARYANA HAVE DIPPED
Hiren Jethva might observe this sample as a result of the Nasa scientist was utilizing information from the GK2A-AMI geostationary satellite tv for pc.
Authorities companies just like the Indian Agricultural Analysis Institute (IARI) use information from polar orbiting satellites. That is the rationale why, at the same time as farm fires continued and the pollution they despatched out stayed fixed, the federal government was applauding a discount in stubble-burning circumstances.
“There was a gentle discount recorded lately beneath the Fee for Air High quality Administration’s (CAQM) coordinated framework to curb paddy stubble burning incidents within the area,” mentioned the Ministry of Surroundings, Forest and Local weather Change in an announcement on December 1.
It mentioned that Punjab had recorded 5,114 farm-fire incidents, and that it was a discount of 53% over 2024, 86% over 2023 and 90% over 2022.
What extra, the federal government assertion pats its personal again for the feat.
“This decline in Punjab and Haryana has been pushed by the implementation of State and District-specific Motion Plans, large-scale deployment of crop residue administration equipment, and strict enforcement measures,” the MOEF assertion mentioned.
It is extremely clear that the federal government goes by the information offered by companies that consider data from sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellites. It’s both at the hours of darkness or turning a blind eye to the truth that farmers have delayed peak hearth exercise to dodge the satellites.
Stubble-burning in Haryana and Punjab is among the components contributing to air air pollution in Delhi-NCR. It is not the one one. Although vehicular and industrial pollution and development mud preserve the air unhealthy all year long, the state of affairs takes a hazardous flip within the months of November and December. Climate patterns, and burning of paddy stubble by farmers in Haryana and Punjab add to the pollution.
The poisonous air disaster in Delhi stems from a number of components and has no silver bullet. Nevertheless, solely by figuring out the extent of the issues can they be addressed. The paper by the Isro scientists has revealed how farmers have delayed beginning farm fires from earlier within the afternoon to round 5 pm to hoodwink the satellites. The federal government wants to pay attention to all the bottom realities to take motion as lives of thousands and thousands of individuals are at stake.
– Ends
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