1. With both the Texans and Chiefs in must-win situations, what will Houston need to do to leave Kansas City with a victory?
The key point of demarcation is 20 points. The Texans have held all but three of their opponents under 20 points, so if they can get to 21 points on offense they have a pretty good chance of winning the game. The key will be getting to quarterback Patrick Mahomes and forcing him to make a couple of mistakes. If Houston can get a short field or two, then they can get to those 21 points and sneak out of Kansas City with a victory.
2. The Texans’ defense ranks first in EPA per play, yards per game and points per game (16.5). What makes it so dominant?
In short, the Texans make life for opposing quarterbacks very difficult. For the second year in a row, they have led the NFL in opponent completion percentage. They do this with constant pressure and elite corners who can cover receivers one-on-one. The linebackers also do a pretty good job of plugging the holes, making it hard to run the ball. The combination is pretty lethal. The stars of the show are Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter on the edges, as both have already passed 10 sacks on the season. However, their interior defensive line is probably the most improved part of their defense. Most of the players are known to Chiefs fans from last year, so the addition of Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai will be the biggest differences from last year’s defense.
3. The Texans’ offense has been more middle-of-the-pack. What needs to happen for the team to make a strong push toward the postseason?
Thank you for saying the offense has been middle-of-the-pack. That is a bit of a confidence boost. In fact, the Houston offense is in the bottom third in almost every meaningful category. This is spilling over into your next question, but the problem has been an identity crisis. Stroud and the passing game is the strength of the offense, but head coach DeMeco Ryans wants to be a smash-mouth football team. That dog won’t hunt, as we like to say in the South. The line hasn’t been terrible — it is a lazy narrative to just pile on the offensive line — but they aren’t the kind of line that moves people. The Texans are awful situationally. They suck in short-yardage situations on third and fourth down — and in the red zone, too. If they could be average in those categories they would likely be an average offense overall — and with their defense, they would win virtually all of their games.
4. C.J. Stroud’s rookie season was magical, but he hasn’t matched that production since. What has changed for Stroud — and can he return to his rookie-year form?
Stroud suffering statistically is akin to the old talking point about Dean Smith being the only coach who could hold Michael Jordan under 30 points a game. The Texans have shifted to a shorter passing game this season to keep Stroud from getting hit. By and large, that has worked. He isn’t getting sacked as often and he is completing a higher percentage of his throws. The numbers overall won’t look as good because Ryans is determined to score 20-24 points, which is just enough to win. On a certain level, I get it. The last two games proved that if you simply don’t turn the ball over, that defense allows you to win most of your games. In Year 1, Stroud led the league in passing yards per game. The coach that has done the best job of keeping Stroud down is Ryans.
5. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, which Chiefs player concerns you the most? Why?
I always worry about Travis Kelce. Obviously, he is a Hall of Fame player and while he is not what he was during his prime, he is still dangerous. What makes him particularly dangerous is that the Texans have never been great at covering tight ends. The strength of their secondary is in their corners Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. Both are likely Pro Bowl participants that can lock down outside wide receivers for most of the game. The linebackers and safeties are not quite as good in coverage. Mind you, this is a spot of general improvement from years past, so I don’t know if Kelce goes off for 100-plus yards like he did in the playoffs last season, but he is one guy the Texans may not have an answer for.
Be sure to check out the answers I gave to their questions by clicking here.
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