NFL Week 15 Harm Replace: Impression on Micah Parsons and Patrick Mahomes

Even in a sport by which the danger of great harm on any given play is a part of the enterprise, Sunday delivered a pair of franchise-altering, league-shifting knee accidents.

As he was trying to drive the Chiefs into vary for what may have been a season-saving discipline purpose in opposition to the Chargers, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, bringing an finish to probably the most irritating season of the two-time MVP quarterback’s profession. Hours later, in the course of a wildly entertaining sport with the Broncos, Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons is believed to have suffered the identical harm whereas trying to chase down quarterback Bo Nix. Along with overshadowing maybe the best sport of Nix’s younger professional profession, the Parsons harm casts a pall on Inexperienced Bay’s possibilities of competing for a Tremendous Bowl this season, months after it traded two first-round picks and defensive deal with Kenny Clark to amass Parsons from the Cowboys.

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As a lot as I might love to write down about Nix or Philip Rivers or the relay-team pick-six the Ravens put collectively or the battle between the Payments and Patriots in Foxborough, the most important story definitely is the season-ending knee accidents for 2 future Corridor of Famers and what they imply for his or her respective groups and the remainder of the league. The harm to Parsons means extra for the Packers in 2025 than the Mahomes harm does to his staff, because the Chiefs’ playoff hopes have been already hanging by a skinny thread (and Kansas Metropolis has now been eradicated). However Mahomes’ harm creates every kind of questions on what the Chiefs appear to be when the QB does return to the lineup.

I am going to begin there, with a corporation that was already dealing with a really vital offseason earlier than the stakes have been raised even larger.

Leap to:
Mahomes and the Chiefs
Parsons and the Packers

What Mahomes’ harm means for the Chiefs

What already felt like all-time low for Chiefs followers hit a brand new low Sunday afternoon. Having misplaced 4 of their prior 5 video games and needing a late comeback to say their solely victory for the reason that begin of November, the Chiefs have been trailing within the newest of their must-win video games, with the Chargers holding a 16-13 lead. The Chiefs had scored an early landing earlier than spending the remainder of the sport struggling to maneuver the soccer, however Mahomes had gotten the offense previous midfield and inside placing distance of a possible game-tying discipline purpose. The air of invincibility was lengthy gone, however the hope that Mahomes would conjure one thing out of nothing — and maintain the Chiefs alive for an additional quarter or one other week till the previous Chiefs one way or the other appeared — hadn’t been extinguished.

After which, immediately, even that was gone when Mahomes left the sport along with his knee harm. Whereas backup Gardner Minshew managed to show a first-and-20 into a brand new set of downs, he threw an interception to Derwin James Jr., ending the sport. However even when Minshew had been in a position to lead a late comeback, the season was primarily over when Mahomes went down injured.

And even when Mahomes had stayed wholesome and performed by way of the top of the season, this model of the Chiefs appeared damaged on offense. Superior metrics have been extra optimistic concerning the Chiefs than their report indicated, however Kansas Metropolis had pieced collectively only one above-average offensive efficiency over the previous six video games — a loss to a Cowboys staff whose defensive turnaround has been vastly overstated. There was no clear-cut offender just like the traditionally unhealthy drop price at huge receiver in 2023. The offense simply wasn’t getting higher; if something, after a short burst at midseason, it was getting worse.

Two issues got here to thoughts instantly after the harm. One was the character of how the Chiefs had survived when the offense had struggled, each early within the season and as lately as the primary quarter of this sport in opposition to the Chargers. Mahomes had at all times been a wonderful scrambler, however he had usually leaned into scrambling within the postseason, when the video games have been extra significant and there was merely much less soccer forward earlier than the chance to relaxation in the course of the offseason.

Earlier than 2025, Mahomes averaged 2.5 scrambles per sport in the course of the common season, and that determine rose to three.3 in the course of the postseason. They have been high-value performs for the Chiefs, particularly within the playoffs, the place enormous scrambles by Mahomes on the proper time had performed vital roles in dramatic wins over the Titans and Eagles.

Via Sunday, Mahomes had averaged 3.8 scrambles per sport in 2025, together with the 12-yard run that gave the Chiefs their solely landing Sunday. And whereas which may not look like an unlimited distinction, all scrambles aren’t created equal. Scrambling into wide-open areas solely after they’re accessible and sliding down with out being touched is one factor, however Mahomes was usually scrambling out of necessity this season, attempting to maneuver the ball in tight quarters. He was taking hits on the finish of his runs, actually because the Chiefs wanted each a type of yards to select up first downs or touchdowns when the offense was struggling.

Together with sacks and quarterback knockdowns, Mahomes had been hit 153 occasions this season, a determine topped solely by Justin Herbert, the quarterback on the opposite facet of the sector Sunday. That was a career-high by way of 14 video games. A yr in the past — with an offense that additionally wanted to be jolted again to life amid a scarcity of playmaking expertise and dismal left deal with play — Mahomes was hit 147 occasions by way of his first 14 video games. However throughout his six prior seasons as a starter, Mahomes took a mean of 117.6 hits in his first 14 video games of every season.

The 30-year-old has been hit 27% extra usually over the previous two years than he had over his first six seasons as an NFL starter. Throw in 40 extra hits throughout three video games within the 2024 postseason, and also you get the thought. It is inconceivable to show that correlation is causation right here, and quarterbacks can undergo traumatic accidents with out taking a great deal of hits, however Mahomes had primarily been taking part in all of 2025 prefer it was a playoff sport. We will not fault the legendary quarterback for attempting to win, after all, however it’s simply extremely tough to get hit the best way he has for 2 years with out lacking time or struggling accidents.

The opposite factor I seen was the identify that got here out over the PA because the cameras zoomed in on Mahomes. As the gang got here to a hush in Kansas Metropolis, I am undecided anybody paid consideration to the referees saying a holding name on No. 72. That is Chukwuebuka Godrick, a 25-year-old rookie recruited by way of the league’s worldwide pathway program who was making his NFL debut. Godrick was pressured onto the sector after offensive deal with Jaylon Moore suffered a knee harm on the second snap of the sport. (Moore tried to return to the sport however reinjured the knee within the second quarter and did not seem after halftime.)

Chargers followers will not have a lot sympathy given what they’ve gone by way of at offensive deal with, however for the second yr in a row, the Chiefs have been caught in December with tackles they could not probably have needed to play significant soccer this season. Final yr, they rotated by way of Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris and D.J. Humphries at left deal with earlier than pushing Joe Thuney outdoors, which led to a disastrous look within the Tremendous Bowl.

By the point Mahomes bought harm Sunday, the Chiefs had misplaced their prime 4 tackles in Josh Simmons, Jawaan Taylor, Moore and Morris. Godrick was taking part in proper deal with in his NFL debut, whereas the left deal with was Esa Pole — who made his first look as a professional final week after Morris went down injured on the opening snap in opposition to the Texans.

For GM Brett Veach, this was the nightmare situation that his 2025 offseason had tried to keep away from. Left deal with has been a revolving door for the Chiefs since Eric Fisher‘s departure, as they cycled by way of Orlando Brown Jr., Donovan Smith after which the 2024 forged earlier than turning issues over to Simmons, their first-round decide within the 2025 draft. Moore was the costliest swing deal with within the NFL, a two-year, $30 million insurance coverage coverage in case Simmons or Taylor was unable to go. In a pinch, the Chiefs nonetheless had Morris, whom the group trotted out for many of 2024 at left deal with, however they would not truly must name upon their fourth possibility at deal with, proper?

Properly, that plan did not work. No one may have anticipated that Morris and Moore would go down on the opening collection of video games in consecutive weeks. Simmons dislocated his wrist in opposition to the Cowboys. Taylor hadn’t missed a single sport as a consequence of harm as a professional earlier than happening with triceps and knee points a number of weeks in the past. Veach deliberate for what he thought could possibly be the worst, and the 2025 season simply laughed.

Devoting significant assets to even additional depth at OT would not have been a sensible or considerate use of belongings. However the Chiefs did not deal with a number of the elementary points with their offensive infrastructure after the 2024 season. These issues must be resolved by the point Mahomes returns to the lineup, as a result of there aren’t any ensures they’re going to be getting the identical Mahomes again, particularly at first.

Mahomes’ timetable for returning in 2026 can be unclear till he undergoes surgical procedure. It is completely doable that he is not prepared to start out subsequent season on the lively roster, which might pressure the Chiefs to start with one other quarterback beneath heart and prioritize the backup function this offseason consequently. Since Chad Henne’s retirement in 2022, the Chiefs have cycled by way of Blaine Gabbert, Carson Wentz and most lately Minshew as veteran choices. Andy Reid prioritized including a developmental backup within the draft throughout his time with the Eagles and finally landed significant worth in trades for QBs corresponding to Kevin Kolb and A.J. Feeley, however the Chiefs have not drafted a quarterback since deciding on Mahomes in 2017.

No matter when Mahomes returns, quarterbacks reply to knee accidents otherwise, and nearly all people takes a while to settle in. Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 of the 2008 season, giving him three further months to heal relative to Mahomes, and nonetheless did not appear to be his normal self in 2009, posting what could be his worst interception price in a single season. It is completely doable that Mahomes, who depends way more on motion and lengthening performs than Brady did, struggles along with his footwork and consistency much more acutely, which may result in accuracy points.

Will Mahomes come again with the identical fashion of play? At 30, he may need already been slowing down and leaning much less into the prolonged performs and out-of-structure creativity that served as his calling card as he ascended to the highest of the NFL hierarchy. Mahomes’ scrambles in 2025 have been extra north-south in nature, designed to select up yardage versus transferring laterally and lengthening performs whereas hoping for somebody to get open.

Will the Chiefs strongly discourage Mahomes from taking part in that manner? Quarterbacks are going to do their very own factor as soon as they get on the sector, however do you keep in mind the final time Mahomes suffered a knee harm? In 2019, Reid referred to as for a Mahomes sneak close to the purpose line, just for his third-year quarterback to undergo a dislocated kneecap. Mahomes got here again after two video games, however Reid was so scarred by the harm that he has refused to name a Mahomes sneak once more, even within the highest-profile conditions.

The Chiefs have nonetheless used Mahomes on velocity choices, even after he suffered a concussion operating parallel to the road within the postseason in opposition to the Browns, and I am undecided Reid goes to have the ability to absolutely discourage Mahomes from scrambling. However the steadiness has to shift. It might be an actual shock if we noticed the Mahomes who was scrambling as a necessity all through the 2025 season once more, at the very least in the course of the common season.

Kansas Metropolis merely cannot ask Mahomes to do as a lot as he has over the previous two seasons, significantly relating to absorbing hits and placing his physique on the road. It hasn’t produced constantly efficient offenses and may need led to this. The one solution to shield Mahomes is to construct the remainder of the offense up and be sure that the Chiefs needn’t depend on him placing himself in hurt’s solution to win, at the very least on a weekly foundation.

The Chiefs have been already going to be desirous about the evolution of this offense in the course of the offseason, the place they have been dealing with a collection of necessary selections. Now, with Mahomes struggling a severe harm, the Chiefs each must take backup quarterback extra significantly and can really feel much more stress to nail their subsequent steps across the QB. Here is what’s arising for Kansas Metropolis and the way the Mahomes harm impacts them:

1. What does the top of the Travis Kelce period imply for reimagining the tight finish room? The offense hasn’t discovered consistency since Kelce pale after the 2023 season. He was unbelievable in 2022, when the Chiefs have been in a position to construct their post-Tyreek Hill offense round his thoughts meld with Mahomes and talent to beat each zone (by figuring out and exploiting area in coverages) and man (by operating away from linebackers or outmuscling defensive backs) coverages alike.

Kelce was nonetheless superb on a per-route foundation in 2023, however he declined because the season went alongside. He was 18th in yards per route run amongst tight ends in 2024, and whereas that has jumped as much as eighth in 2025, Kelce has additionally dropped a league-high 9 passes — three of which led to Mahomes interceptions. And whereas Kelce was by no means going to the Corridor of Fame for his blocking, there have been extra notable tough patches for him there, most notably within the Tremendous Bowl loss to the Eagles.

For that manufacturing, the Chiefs have paid Kelce simply over $17 million per yr between 2024 and 2025, a determine that will be out of line if the man receiving it wasn’t a franchise icon and a surefire Corridor of Famer. Some other participant would have been launched or requested to take a major pay reduce heading into 2025. However on condition that Kelce was already contemplating retiring earlier than returning for this season, I am undecided there was ever a sensible situation the place the Chiefs may have requested or anticipated their legendary tight finish to come back again for a fraction of what he was owed.

Kelce’s contract expires after the season, although, and if he does return, it will not be at that price ticket. Noah Grey has struggled with drops lately, however on a three-year, $18 million deal, the Chiefs would in all probability maintain their 2021 fifth-round decide round for an additional season because the second tight finish. Jared Wiley, chosen within the fourth spherical of the 2024 draft, has two catches in 9 video games over two professional campaigns.

So whom do the Chiefs substitute Kelce with as their main tight finish? And what does that imply for his or her offense? It is tempting to attempt to discover a like-for-like substitute, however Kelce’s some of the distinctive gamers in current league historical past. The Chiefs aren’t going to have the ability to purchase somebody corresponding to Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. Kyle Pitts Sr. is a pending free agent, however he is not the identical type of improviser as Kelce, and his blocking is not as much as even Kelce’s requirements. If he retains having three-touchdown video games down the stretch, the Falcons may even select to franchise him.

This has been the yr of offenses leaning into larger personnel groupings, and progressive models are taking part in 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR) and/or six offensive lineman units extra usually than they’ve in years. Reid did not invent going larger, however leaning closely into 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) was one of many methods the Chiefs survived after buying and selling away Hill, utilizing the bigger groupings to control defensive personnel, cut back the scope of the defensive playbook and create checks they might exploit with Kelce.

Might the Chiefs lean into that and go together with amount over high quality? Going after two and even three tight ends this offseason could be a manner for them to switch Kelce within the lineup, if not essentially his function within the offense. Veach may pursue tight finish assist sooner than he usually would within the draft, though the league’s thirst for tight ends in the course of the aforementioned personnel shift may trigger gamers at a perennially underrated place to get pushed up the board.

The opposite possibility could be to evolve the offense away from a Kelce-like presence at tight finish and unfold the sector extra constantly, which might both be behind the curve or forward of it, relying on whether or not you assume these shifts to larger personnel groupings have peaked. It is telling that the Chiefs left Simmons on an island extra usually than another left deal with within the NFL this season whereas he was within the lineup, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. If the Chiefs have two tackles they belief in cross safety and needn’t chip or maintain a sixth participant in to dam, that will permit Reid to constantly get 5 eligibles out into routes. That hasn’t at all times been the case over the previous few years when the road hasn’t been proper.

2. What do the Chiefs do at proper deal with? The Chiefs are $34 million over the projected cap in 2026. They will get beneath that determine by restructuring contracts, most notably with Mahomes, who has a whopping $78.2 million cap hit on the books subsequent yr. I’ve anticipated the Chiefs would use 2026 because the yr to renegotiate Mahomes’ record-setting 10-year, $450 million deal, and whereas the ACL tear will create some uncertainty, I might be shocked if it modified the long-term plans in Kansas Metropolis. The Chiefs will work off Josh Allen‘s six-year, $330 million contract with the Payments as a baseline for Mahomes’ new pact when it occurs.

The Chiefs should resolve whether or not they wish to give cornerback Trent McDuffie a brand new contract, and so they’ll doubtless transfer on from Kristian Fulton after a disappointing stint. However the one large contract which may come up for dialogue is at proper deal with. Taylor is owed $20 million within the ultimate yr of his deal, none of which is assured. That is top-tier proper deal with cash, and given his penalty points, Taylor is extra like a strong starter than somebody difficult for Professional Bowl honors.

Chopping Taylor would unlock $20 million and open up a spot within the beginning lineup for Moore, who would take over at proper deal with within the second yr of his two-year contract. It might create a gap at swing deal with, however Veach would deal with that with a number of the financial savings by transferring on from Taylor. Suamataia may additionally transfer to proper deal with, however that will simply open up a special gap within the beginning lineup at left guard.

3. Can Reid piece collectively a operating sport? The opposite manner the Chiefs thrived after shedding Hill was by working their manner right into a extra bodily speeding assault. Veach constructed a powerful inside line by way of Joe Thuney and hit on draftees Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. And whereas Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a bust because the staff’s 2020 first-round decide at operating again, Isiah Pacheco‘s vicious operating fashion shortly gave groups who defended the Chiefs with gentle packing containers and two deep safeties one thing to fret about.

Pacheco performed a useful function on the 2022 and 2023 groups, however after fracturing his fibula in 2024, he hasn’t been the identical caliber of participant. Reid briefly turned to Carson Steele earlier than in 2024 bringing again Kareem Hunt, who had been reduce by the group in 2018 after kicking and shoving a lady. Hunt has been glorious in short-yardage conditions over the previous two seasons, however he has proven nearly no explosiveness and has only one run over 20 yards throughout 348 makes an attempt in Kansas Metropolis.

Whereas the Chiefs rank eighth in success price on early-down designed runs over that timeframe, they’re twentieth in EPA per play on these carries. The specter of Mahomes has the Chiefs operating into very pleasant packing containers, which ought to make life simpler for his or her backs. They’ve additionally had at the very least two Professional Bowl-caliber linemen on the inside for many of that stretch in Humphrey and Smith. Frankly, the Chiefs have settled for mediocre operating again play for too lengthy, maybe partly as a result of they have been burned by the try and make a extra vital funding on the place in Edwards-Helaire, who ended up being a replacement-level again.

Veach wasn’t naive to these issues, because the Chiefs reportedly negotiated with the Jets to amass operating again Breece Corridor on the deadline. The deal did not come to fruition after Kansas Metropolis refused to ship a third-round decide to amass the pending free agent, which might have been a catastrophe given what has occurred with Mahomes.

The Chiefs can go after Corridor if he hits free company this offseason, and backs corresponding to Rico Dowdle, Travis Etienne Jr. and Javonte Williams at the moment venture to be in the marketplace after spectacular 2025 campaigns. It doesn’t matter what the Chiefs do, this is not a spot the place Veach can run issues again with the identical names and faces in 2026. Pacheco and Hunt will each be free brokers, and a contemporary begin atop the depth chart would make sense for the Chiefs.

4. Do the Chiefs evolve schematically and stylistically? Because the Chiefs have struggled in 2025, extra of the fan base has criticized Reid’s offense for being behind the innovative or remaining extra stagnant than others across the NFL. Followers are at all times going to criticize offenses that are not racking up 30 factors per sport, particularly after they have a generational participant at quarterback, so I am just a little hesitant to lean into these complaints myself. Everyone goes to have a unhealthy playcall or two on the unsuitable time; that is simply the fact of the NFL.

Is Reid’s offense actually behind the occasions? I am undecided. Reid’s a world-class sport planner and has an unbelievable aptitude for selecting aside opposing defensive guidelines with motions, shifts and different schematic selections. The offense had seemingly lowered itself in scope and changed into a fast game-intensive assault between 2023 and 2024, however that was partly a product of shedding Hill after which having a sieve at left deal with. The Chiefs have had loads of deep alternatives in 2025, however frankly, the offense simply hasn’t completed a terrific job of executing in these spots, with Mahomes, the receivers and the cross safety every guilty at completely different occasions.

I would like to see the Chiefs evolve their offensive philosophy a bit. We have seen groups lean into going beneath heart, the place there’s extra of a menace of onerous play-action, and it is simpler to get into extra of the hole scheme runs which have flourished across the league lately. The Chiefs have usually resisted that development and caught within the shotgun, the place they usually lean into zone runs and RPOs. They’ve seemingly been much less efficient over the previous couple of years, and that strategy can be tougher with Mahomes recovering from a knee harm.

I’ve seen requires Reid’s job from probably the most virulent of Chiefs followers on social media, and whereas there are about 25 fan bases who wish to fireplace their coaches on any given week, the Chiefs aren’t firing Reid. They should not, both. Even when we reframe this round the potential of the legendary coach retiring, which nice offensive thoughts would the Chiefs rent to switch Reid? The highest offensive assistant on Dan Graziano’s record of potential teaching candidates is Matt Nagy, who occurs to be Reid’s assistant. Guys corresponding to Joe Brady, Klint Kubiak and Arthur Smith are both unproven or have had their very own points in stops across the league. Mike McCarthy? Doug Pederson? Are they actually going to be upgrades on Reid?

Any coach would wish to work with Mahomes, however staff house owners aren’t going to let their coaches go to Kansas Metropolis out of the kindness of their hearts. Buying somebody corresponding to Mike Tomlin or John Harbaugh would value draft capital, and people organizations aren’t going to wish to make life simpler for the Chiefs if Reid retires. The Chiefs in all probability aren’t in place to deal a Jon Gruden-sized haul to amass a coach, even when the suitable one grew to become accessible.

What’s extra sensible, maybe, is Reid bringing someone into the group to function a contemporary voice as an offensive assistant. The Chiefs do not want wholesale modifications. They don’t seem to be beginning over. They’re seventh in EPA per play over the previous two seasons, which might be nice for any staff that does not have the perfect quarterback of his era within the prime of his profession. Mahomes has carried the Chiefs over the previous two years, and we noticed the diminishing returns of these efforts all through a irritating 2025 season. Now, it is time for the Chiefs to make sure that Mahomes will not must put his physique on the road as usually when he returns in 2026.

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What Parsons’ harm means for the Packers

As they flew dwelling from Denver on Sunday evening, the Packers may need felt like a Tremendous Bowl was slipping by way of their fingers. Simply as Inexperienced Bay was getting more healthy late within the season, accidents collapsed one of many league’s most full groups. Parsons is probably going completed for the yr with a torn ACL. Christian Watson, who has regarded like a star receiver for stretches since coming back from his personal ACL harm, went down with a chest harm on a Jordan Love interception and didn’t return. Proper deal with Zach Tom was injured within the second quarter and did not play within the second half, whereas security Evan Williams wasn’t in a position to play within the fourth quarter after struggling a knee harm.

With the likes of Tucker Kraft, Elgton Jenkins and Devonte Wyatt already on injured reserve, the Packers are staring down the specter of one other postseason with out a number of starters on either side of the soccer. GM Brian Gutekunst’s draft-and-develop philosophy usually leads the Packers to one of many deepest rosters within the league, however as we noticed in final season’s playoff loss to the Eagles, even that depth has its limits.

Gutekunst’s gorgeous transfer to commerce two first-round picks and Kenny Clark to amass Parsons earlier than the season each went in opposition to kind and served as an announcement that the Packers weren’t simply accumulating expertise. Factoring in a record-setting contract as a part of the commerce, Gutekunst was making an unlimited guess that Parsons was going to be among the many easiest gamers in soccer over the following few seasons.

As groups buying and selling for gamers corresponding to Khalil Mack and Jamal Adams have proven in years previous, it is tough for that guess to repay. Buying and selling unknown future picks for recognized superstars is nice on paper, and there have been occasions (principally involving the Rams) the place it has labored, however the bar for fulfillment is extraordinarily excessive. With the implied worth of the draft picks despatched to the Cowboys included, the Packers are paying Parsons the equal of $65 million per season over the following 4 years.

There’s nothing inherently unsuitable with making that type of transfer, however something in need of being the perfect participant within the NFL goes to make that contract tough to swallow. It is also placing a dramatic quantity of the price range — between precise money and draft capital — into one participant staying each wholesome and productive. Spreading the cash and draft capital round all through the roster means a staff is much less prone to 1 large harm than by concentrating so many assets into one participant. Parsons’ upside is such that I can (and nonetheless do) perceive why the tradeoff could be price it, however that is the soccer equal of placing quite a lot of your eggs in a single basket.

To the extent that any non-quarterback can dwell as much as that type of price ticket, Parsons was holding his personal in Inexperienced Bay. He had 12.5 sacks in 14 video games with the Packers, an much more spectacular quantity after we contemplate that he was taking part in solely in a part-time function early within the season after becoming a member of the Packers in August. Parsons led the league with 83 pressures, and his 34 fast pressures have been second within the NFL behind Nik Bonitto. He wasn’t going to win Defensive Participant of the Yr, on condition that Myles Garrett is at the moment producing one of many nice defensive seasons in NFL historical past, however Parsons would have been competing with Will Anderson Jr. for the second edge rusher spot on the All-Professional staff.

Whereas the splits with and with out Parsons weren’t fairly as vital as they have been throughout his time with the Cowboys, we additionally noticed a fairly vital cut up in Inexperienced Bay’s cross protection with their star edge rusher on and off the sector. With him within the lineup, the Packers allowed the league’s Tenth-lowest QBR to opposing quarterbacks. Throughout 109 dropbacks with out him this season, the Packers fell to twenty second by that very same metric.

What Parsons gave coordinator Jeff Hafley and the protection, actually, was safety. The weak hyperlink on the Inexperienced Bay protection is at cornerback, the place Nate Hobbs has been alternately injured and disappointing because the staff’s largest free agent addition on protection. Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine wrestle with consistency, and whereas Javon Bullard has had an excellent second season working within the slot, the roughest video games for the Packers’ protection have usually come when its corners have been uncovered.

The Packers’ protection ranks twenty sixth within the league in Complete QBR when it does not get dwelling with stress on the opposing quarterback. Now, with out Parsons, the stress price will inevitably drop. Gamers corresponding to Lukas Van Ness and Kingsley Enagbare have regarded imposing at occasions throughout from Parsons, however they’re going to see extra consideration with out Inexperienced Bay’s greatest defender within the lineup.

A technique to reply to these stress issues could be to ship extra our bodies, one thing Hafley has been in a position to principally keep away from this season due to Parsons. The Packers ship 4 or fewer rushers on practically 80% of opposing dropbacks, the fifth-highest price within the NFL. Regardless of dropping seven or extra into protection on the overwhelming majority of snaps, the Packers nonetheless handle to get stress on slightly below 35% of dropbacks, which is the eighth-best price within the league. Each one of many groups forward of the Packers in stress price additionally blitz extra usually than Inexperienced Bay.

When the Packers do blitz, their 53.8% stress price is second greatest, trailing solely the Seahawks. Parsons performs an enormous function in these pressures and creating alternatives for his teammates. Hafley is aware of that groups are frightened of what Parsons goes to do on each snap, and his presence can primarily function an indicator for what offenses will do in cross safety and what the Packers can do to interrupt these guidelines. I am skeptical that their blitz stress price will sustain with out Parsons if the Packers lean additional into sending further stress.

Hafley’s sim pressures (which are not technically at all times blitzes) have gotten extra imposing because the season has wore on, and Parsons has created havoc on stunts and twists, with offensive linemen apprehensive about letting him by way of and in flip permitting Inexperienced Bay’s different rushers to run free within the course of. Hafley did not have the type of time a coordinator would wish to construct the sport plan round Parsons, on condition that the Packers acquired their new star solely days earlier than the season started. The Packers have been getting higher at maximizing Parsons, although. Now, all of that involves a halt.

Parsons and the elevated stress price have been additionally protecting for a problem the Packers have handled all through the season: a scarcity of turnovers. Led by Xavier McKinney‘s eight interceptions, the Pack pressured 31 turnovers in 2024, the fourth most of any staff. On a drive-by-drive foundation, solely the Payments and Vikings pressured extra turnovers than the Packers, who turned 16.4% of opposing possessions into takeaways.

Turnover charges can fluctuate from yr to yr, although, and the Packers have pressured solely 13 in 14 video games this season. They’re ending simply 9.1% of drives in turnovers, which has the Pack all the best way down in twenty third, proper forward of the Vikings (who’re coping with the identical year-to-year variance). The protection is recovering fumbles at about the identical price, however it’s forcing fumbles about half as usually because it did a yr in the past.

The larger drawback is that Inexperienced Bay has solely seven interceptions in 14 video games. A type of was Nixon’s interception to seal up final week’s win over the Bears, which was clearly an enormous play, however Hafley’s unit felt these lacking picks within the loss to the Broncos. Bo Nix had his greatest sport as a professional, going 23-of-34 for 302 yards with 4 touchdowns, however he additionally left just a few balls in harmful areas for the Packers. He threw two near-interceptions on the drive by which Parsons suffered his ACL harm, and Carrington Valentine dropped a 3rd with 5:47 to go. When issues are going nicely — as they have been in 2024 — these throws flip into interceptions. After they aren’t — as has been the case for this secondary in 2025 — they fall harmlessly to the bottom.

The Packers have dropped from third in interception price in 2024 to twenty sixth this season. If there is a manner they will overcome the Parsons harm, it is in all probability going to be by way of that turnover price spiking again towards the place it was in 2024. We have already seen a lot of the identical key personnel produce a wonderful takeaway price in 2024, and the randomness of turnover charges is such {that a} staff may go three months with a middling determine after which immediately leap over the ultimate few video games of the season. The Eagles had 16 takeaways by way of their first 14 video games a yr in the past after which racked up 23 over their ultimate seven matchups, together with 13 throughout their four-game run to the Tremendous Bowl. The Packers may have that type of late-season spree in them.

Parsons and his stress ought to have made it simpler to pressure these turnovers, although, so it’s going to be harder to create takeaways with out the celebrity on the sector. The mix of a Parsons-led rush and a turnover spike would have given the Packers a very terrifying protection the remainder of the best way. And whereas Parsons is younger sufficient at 26 to make an affect for years to come back even after coming back from the ACL tear, the Packers have been least prone to really feel the ache of lacking out on these picks in 2025, on condition that the alternatives do not come off their books and will not be lacking from the roster till 2026 and past.

This wasn’t a one-year, all-in commerce by any means, however the Packers have been a Tremendous Bowl-caliber staff with Parsons within the combine. Now, immediately, issues are a lot harder for the Packers within the NFC.