After final week’s stories that Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are actively discussing his future in Milwaukee, the NBA discourse has leaned absolutely into trade-machine mode. However this new blockbuster saga will unfold inside entrance workplaces that should navigate two huge leaguewide traits: first, the evolving market underneath the NBA’s new-ish collective bargaining settlement, and second, the emergence of the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder as huge championship favorites.
The stage is about, however the backdrop is quirky. The Greek drama rippling by means of the NBA has three essential characters: the Bucks group, Giannis himself, and the 29 different groups in place to jockey for his companies.
The Bucks have been in regular decline since successful the title in 2021, slowly turning the perfect squad within the league into a skinny, uneven mess. Due to a collection of massive strikeouts within the draft, muffed teaching hires, dumb trades, and the most important waive-and-stretch transfer in NBA historical past, the workforce is flailing, and given its latest monitor file, it’s exhausting to foretell how this group will handle its greatest potential transaction because it traded Kareem 50 years in the past. Will it do the precise factor? I’m unsure it deserves the advantage of the doubt at this level.
Then there’s Antetokounmpo himself, who remains to be squarely in his prime and desires to compete for championships. The extent to which Giannis will dictate his subsequent vacation spot is maybe the largest variable within the rising market—if he places his thumb on the dimensions to get to New York, for instance, it might severely harm Milwaukee’s leverage in negotiations with different groups. That brings us to the remainder of the league.
Beneath conventional circumstances, the commerce marketplace for a two-time MVP in his prime can be huge, and groups can be lining as much as land him. In any case, superstars don’t develop on bushes, and the prospect to amass one of many league’s most dominant forces is a once-in-a-decade sort of alternative.
However the mid-2020s aren’t conventional circumstances. The CBA makes trades trickier than ever, to the purpose that simply the straightforward act of designing an allowable trade is troublesome, particularly in the course of the season. And its hyper-punitive overspending guidelines have elevated the relative worth of first-round draft picks whereas additionally elevating the dangers related to overpaying supermax gamers on the flawed aspect of 30. That’s very related right here, particularly contemplating Antetokounmpo’s latest accidents—and the present calf pressure that may probably sideline him for an additional two to a few weeks.
But, while you speak to individuals across the league, there’s one other issue that nearly at all times comes up in conversations about the marketplace for Giannis: the Thunder. That’s as a result of the defending champions appear flat-out inevitable. They’re at present 23-1, are winners of 15 straight video games, and are on tempo to shatter the league’s file for internet score and successful proportion. They’ve performed all that whereas lacking key starters for big chunks of time.
Put it this manner: At this level within the 2023-24 season, the Celtics have been title favorites with +370 odds on FanDuel; the next-highest odds belonged to the Nuggets, at +400. On this present day one 12 months in the past, Boston was on the high of the title image with +200 odds, trailed by OKC at +500. As of Tuesday, the Thunder’s title odds for the 2025-26 season have been +130, with the next-best workforce, Denver, coming in at +700. Their standing as huge favorites is as ironclad as something the NBA has seen in years.
OKC has emerged as such a juggernaut this season that some potential suitors, notably these out West, is probably not so desperate to mash the “win-now” button. Groups across the NBA are asking themselves a model of the query that Zach Lowe requested me on his present final week: “When do you have to attempt to tackle the Thunder?”
On the one hand, it positive doesn’t seem to be now is a superb time, particularly if coming at OKC together with your finest shot now entails weakening your future place. In a extra wide-open league, groups may speak themselves into being “a Giannis away” from the promised land, however proper now, the promised land looks like it’s already occupied by a buzz noticed in Oklahoma.
However, this could be the perfect shot groups are going to get. Oklahoma Metropolis is about to obtain the Clippers’ first-round choose within the loaded 2026 draft, to say nothing of the plethora of different future draft belongings coming its method over the subsequent a number of years. Its finest gamers are all in or coming into their mid-20s. Its cap sheet is meticulously laid out, and its participant improvement program is finest in school. There’s each purpose to suppose that the Thunder will solely put extra distance between themselves and the remainder of the league.
This calculus is looming giant for each San Antonio and Houston, two groups which can be good now but additionally function a great deal of younger gamers who’ve but to succeed in their peaks. After all, Milwaukee may need to begin a rebuild with Dylan Harper, Stephon Fort, Amen Thompson, or Alperen Sengun, however the Spurs and Rockets may slightly let their present cores develop. Somewhat than attempt to land a knockout blow proper now, they may have the ability to throw a number of punches at OKC over the subsequent a number of years.
The calculus for Japanese Convention groups is considerably completely different. Whereas the groups on the high of the West are craning their necks to search for at OKC, the race to win the East is as broad open as any I can recall. Groups like Miami and New York don’t have the bounty of younger expertise that the Spurs and Rockets have, however they do have one thing these groups don’t: a comparatively clear path to the convention championship. These groups, plus the Pistons and every other Japanese Convention strivers, must weigh whether or not to go all in simply to make the Finals and determine whether or not including Giannis would give them a puncher’s likelihood towards OKC.
If you happen to zoom out past the Giannis market, the Thunder additionally exemplify a broader tectonic shift underneath the league. There are three essential methods to construct a workforce within the NBA: the draft, trades, and free company. However this present CBA has deformed the team-building pie chart. By making trades more durable, it has weakened the commerce market. Its dreaded aprons additionally make overpaying star expertise in free company extra dangerous than ever, which implies—in a zero-sum team-building recreation—that the relative worth of future draft picks and younger “cost-controlled” expertise is rising by default. Make no mistake, these belongings have at all times been important, however their significance is surging due to the present atmosphere.
In order for you proof, simply evaluate the story of the 2 cities on the coronary heart of this story. Each the Bucks and Thunder have been constructed round MVP abilities, however the similarities finish there.
Extremely, Giannis is the one participant on the present Milwaukee roster who was drafted by the workforce. That’s absurd, however it’s additionally an enormous purpose why it’s didn’t construct depth round him at this key part of his prime. As an alternative, it’s leaned on trades and free company. It hasn’t labored over the long run—and the workforce’s huge failures within the draft are a cautionary story. Take a look at this filth. One scout informed me that he thought-about the Bucks’ latest draft historical past to be “most likely the worst within the NBA.”
Against this, OKC’s skill to encompass its centerpiece with elite younger expertise like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is dropped at you by Sam Presti’s limitless provide of draft capital, together with the workforce’s dependable scouting and participant improvement equipment. Positive, OKC dipped into free company to land Isaiah Hartenstein and used the commerce market to amass Alex Caruso, however the Thunder’s dedication to the draft is the bedrock of their signature success.
In a copycat league, the Thunder have change into the brand new blueprint. OKC’s deep roster of younger expertise was largely constructed with persistence and a long-term perspective, and the entire league is aware of it. Any workforce that wishes to dethrone these champions must be deep, wholesome, and versatile. Within the time of aprons and sophisticated commerce restrictions, draft picks are one of the best ways to construct one thing sustainable. Groups which can be utilizing the draft successfully to construct homegrown stars are in a lot better situation, and have method longer runways, than groups which can be attempting to depend on trades and free company.
However right here’s the factor—the NBA can be a “cautionary story” league, and the present plights of groups just like the Clippers are additionally related. Six years after they despatched a warfare chest of youth to Oklahoma for Paul George, the legacy of that deal nonetheless casts a big shadow. Possibly Milwaukee will persuade a commerce associate to half with a bunch of future belongings to land one of the crucial proficient gamers on the planet. However there may not be a fast repair. The aspiration across the league is to be the subsequent Thunder, not the subsequent Clippers.
Kirk Goldsberry
Kirk Goldsberry is the New York Occasions–bestselling creator of ‘Sprawlball.’ He beforehand served because the vice chairman of strategic analysis for the San Antonio Spurs and because the lead analyst of Workforce USA Basketball. He’s additionally the chief director of the Enterprise of Sports activities Institute on the College of Texas. He lives in Austin.
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