I do know we simply did this with the Chicago Bears, however I at all times have the Bears on fraud watch as a result of they’re the Bears. The Denver Broncos, to my informal AFC eye, appear fairly good. Their protection appears to be for actual, and whereas I don’t actually take care of Bo Nix as a quarterback, I’ve at all times felt like he’s at the very least cautious with the ball, and he has Courtland Sutton to depend on in determined conditions. The Broncos being legitimately good appears completely cheap, particularly since considered one of my few precise reminiscences of the season is Denver shedding to Indy on a leverage penalty that allowed Indy kicker Spencer Shrader a second shot at a missed game-winning subject objective.
However a fast verify below the hood has turned me round on this, at the very least a bit. First, let’s go over the wins.
- Tennessee (Horrible), 20-12. The Titans are one of many worst groups in soccer. Huge whoop.
- Bengals (Horrible), 28-3. Cinci began Jake Browning on this sport. He went 14/25 for 125 yards.
- Eagles, 21-17. A whole rock struggle that the Broncos have been shedding 17-3 coming into the fourth quarter, and that featured a mixed 21 penalties for a mixed 176 yards from official Adrian Hill and his crew.
- New York Jets (Horrible), 13-11. The Jets truly went up on this sport 11-10 attributable to a holding name in the long run zone towards Denver, leading to a security. The Broncos managed a late subject objective, however the Jets managed to drive all the best way to the Denver 44 and possibly wanted 5 yards or so for a game-winning subject objective try of their very own. As an alternative, Justin Fields took an enormous sack. Some issues by no means change.
- New York Giants, 33-32. The peak of the Skattebo/Dart combo as Jaxson Dart torched the Denver protection for 283 yards and three touchdowns. The Giants led by two factors with 37 seconds left, however Nix hit large performs to Marvin Mims and Courtland Sutton, and Will Lutz walked it off with a brief subject objective.
- Dallas Cowboys, 44-24. OK, this isn’t a nasty win, but it surely’s not precisely spectacular to mild up the Cowboys’ protection.
- Houston, 18-15. Two of the very best defenses in soccer performed a horrible sport. Will Lutz as soon as once more walked it off after a 25-yard scramble from Bo Nix within the last seconds.
- Las Vegas Raiders (Horrible), 10-7. One other horrific sport the place Denver had a 10-7 lead with seven minutes remaining when Nix was picked by Kyu Blu Kelly. The Raiders moved right down to the Denver 30 the place Daniel Carlson missed a game-tying 48-yard subject objective.
- Chiefs, 22-19. Will Lutz kicked 5 subject objectives on this sport, together with a 54-yarder to tie issues up with 4 minutes left, and sure, one other walk-off from 35 as time expired.
- Commanders (Horrible), 27-26 in time beyond regulation. The Commanders trailed by three with three minutes left, however Marcus Mariota led a 17-play drive to the Denver 14, leading to a game-tying subject objective. Denver scored first in time beyond regulation due to a 41-yard Evan Engram catch and run, however Mariota once more led a 13-play landing drive to convey Washington inside one. The Commanders went for 2 to attempt to win it, and Mariota missed Jeremy McNichols.
- Raiders (Horrible, once more), 24-17. The Raiders man. They’re horrible and received down 24-7, partially on a Marvin Mims 48-yard punt return. They rallied a bit, however we should always not, in truth, rely this as a one-score sport as a result of the Raiders hit a walk-off subject objective to chop it to seven. Very unsuspicious.
Anyway, the final Raiders’ sport however, that may be a LOT of shut video games towards a LOT of rubbish. They’re now 7-2 (technically 8-2) in one-score video games, have an 8.5-4.5 Pythagorean document, and per DVOA, they’ve 8.1 estimated wins. They’ve had the 31st hardest schedule so far, they usually have the fourth hardest remaining.
That is all VERY much like the Bears, and I didn’t name the Bears frauds, so I gained’t throw the label on Denver utterly, however they’ve undoubtedly been very fortunate. And in contrast to the Bears, who have been type of in a giant jumble of fairly shut NFC groups, the Broncos have the one seed, are tied with the Patriots when it comes to document, and are a full two video games away from quantity three. Folks have been nonetheless fairly skeptical of the Bears, however there’s a number of “finest staff within the AFC” speak concerning the Broncos, and uhm, no. By DVOA their two finest wins are over the Texans (8th) and Chiefs (7th), however they’ve largely crushed the dregs. The Jets, Raiders (x2), and Titans are all within the DVOA backside 5, and all have DVOA’s below -23.6.
Actually, the extra you have a look at the Broncos, the extra they resemble the Bears. Whereas Denver has higher protection, each groups are clearly petrified of their quarterbacks, and with good cause. Bo Nix SHOULD be a secure, conservative sport supervisor. Solely three qualifying quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, and Geno Smith) have fewer accomplished Air Yards than Nix, and solely Caleb Williams has a decrease “aggressiveness index” than Nix. Aggressiveness Index measures the variety of throws a quarterback makes when a defender is inside a yard of the supposed receiver. For context, Jordan Love’s AI is 15.5% which is sort of precisely common. That quantity for Nix is 11.3%. Nonetheless, regardless of hardly ever trying a dangerous cross in any respect, Nix has thrown 9 interceptions. His 1.9% interception proportion is tied for fifteenth, which can not appear that unhealthy besides that Nix is ALWAYS checking down and NEVER attacking tight home windows.
Nix has a couple of different issues. He’s second within the league in having passes batted down, which is a practical results of throwing brief on a regular basis. And despite the fact that he’s throwing easy passes to largely uncovered targets, his receivers are the second worst at catching the ball, with a 9.7% drop proportion. Solely Trevor Lawrence has been completed dirtier.
Compounding all the things else, the Denver dashing assault has cratered within the wake of shedding JK Dobbins for the season. Dobbins was ripping off 5 yards a carry and ranked eighth in Subsequent Gen Stats Dashing Yards over Anticipated proportion. He was misplaced for the season to an damage after November sixth, and backup RJ Harvey has been a marked downgrade, averaging simply 3.9 and rating second to final in ROE%.
I do suppose the Denver protection is legit. The one staff to essentially do any actual injury was the Giants of all groups; they’re sixth in DVOA and seventh in EPA, however whereas these are good rankings, they’re hardly elite, and don’t actually assist an 11-2 document with a below-average offense.
Regardless of a 10-game profitable streak, together with a 10-game profitable streak at residence, the Broncos are underdogs to the Packers this week within the Mile Excessive Metropolis. If you happen to’re questioning why, now . They might not fairly rise to the extent of frauds, however all the things signifies that the Packers are a top-five staff within the league, and Denver merely isn’t.
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