NFL Week 15 Fantasy Playbook: Key Shadow Studies, Lineup Locks, and Rating Projections

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 15, which kicked off Thursday evening with the Falcons on the Buccaneers.

This column options rating projections, over/unders, win possibilities, and naturally, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to assist you to with all kinds of decision-making, together with sit/begin, last-minute waiver provides and lineup selections.

Moreover, now we have folded our Shadow Studies, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns right here. Utilizing our play-by-play information, we’re capable of determine defensive schemes and the place every huge receiver and cornerback strains up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we are able to supply the most effective fantasy steerage every week.

---

---

All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively customary scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Okay, 1 D/ST), though I will typically point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for at the very least 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is mechanically decided utilizing a proprietary metric that components in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.

---

• DFS values within the charts under (and their relative high quality) are solely offered for Sunday’s fundamental slate, which is why there aren’t any values for the video games scheduled for Thursday, Sunday evening or Monday. For a better have a look at the most effective values for Sunday’s fundamental slate, you may as well check out Week 15’s DraftKings DFS cheat sheet.

---

(Editor’s word: Projections and rankings will align virtually completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant may be ranked barely larger or decrease due to different components, together with upside or threat. This column is topic to updates through the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings shall be up to date on the positioning and projections will all the time be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)

---

CLE-CHI | BAL-CIN | LAC-KC | BUF-NE | WAS-NYG | LV-PHI | NYJ-JAX
ARI-HOU | GB-DEN | DET-LAR| CAR-NO| TEN-SF | IND-SEA| MIN-DAL | MIA-PIT

---

Projected rating: Bears 24, Browns 18

Lineup locks: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin Jr.

Fantasy scoop: Shedeur Sanders‘ third NFL begin was one, because the rookie accomplished 23 of 42 passes for 364 yards, three touchdowns and one INT, including 29 yards and one rating on three carries. Sanders’ large sport is an efficient signal for his future within the execs, although he is unlikely to emerge as a constant fantasy possibility down the stretch. Sanders’ large sport was his first fantasy effort over 10.6 fantasy factors and got here in opposition to one of many league’s shakiest defenses (Tennessee). Nonetheless, though Sanders ran for a landing on Sunday, word that he totaled solely 5 yards on two carries in his first two begins. Sanders ought to be rostered in superflex and dynasty codecs, however he is not more than a fringe QB2 in Chicago this week.

Shadow Report: Downgrade Chicago’s receivers in opposition to a Cleveland protection that has allowed the fourth-fewest WR fantasy factors, together with the second-fewest over the previous eight weeks. Cleveland hasn’t confronted a lot quantity (second-fewest WR targets) and, combining that with robust play (fourth-lowest cross EPA allowed), has surrendered the second-fewest catches and yardage to receivers. Solely three receivers have reached 17 factors in opposition to the Browns, and all got here previous to Week 7. Rome Odunze (if again from harm) ought to be downgraded to WR3 territory, whereas DJ Moore and Luther Burden III ought to be thought-about in your flex provided that Odunze stays sidelined.

Over/below: 42.3 (twelfth highest)
Win likelihood: Bears 69% (seventh highest)

---

Projected rating: Bengals 26, Ravens 24

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase

Fantasy scoop: Isaiah Seemingly posted a 4-25-1 receiving line Sunday and has precisely six targets and 12.5 fantasy factors in consecutive video games. This, after the fourth-year tight finish failed to succeed in both of these marks in any of his first eight video games of the season. Seemingly’s enjoying time hasn’t modified through the “sizzling” streak, however his goal share has been progressively rising and he sits at a wholesome 19% through the previous two weeks. A type of video games included a season-high 95 yards in opposition to these similar Bengals in Week 13. Cincinnati continues to battle badly in opposition to tight ends, having allowed essentially the most targets, catches, yards, TDs and fantasy factors to the place. Each Mark Andrews and Seemingly are viable streaming choices this week.

Shadow Report: Zay Flowers is a robust guess to attract shadow protection from DJ Turner, as he did when these groups met two weeks in the past. In that sport, Turner aligned in opposition to Flowers on 23 of his 33 routes, together with 22 of 26 on the perimeter. Although Flowers had a protracted landing taken away on an iffy (at finest) OPI name, he was restricted to 1 yard on six targets. He was equally unsuccessful when Turner shadowed him in every of the previous two seasons: Week 11 of 2023 (Flowers scored 7.3 fantasy factors) and Week 10 of 2024 (7.4).

Turner has shadowed typically and has completed exceedingly effectively in these spots. The ten receivers he has shadowed averaged 7.2 fantasy PPG within the sport, with just one reaching 13 factors. The Bengals have quietly proven effectively in opposition to receivers general, having allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy factors to the place. Flowers ought to be downgraded and could be very a lot a Week 15 bust candidate.

Over/below: 49.9 (4th highest)
Win likelihood: Bengals 55% (thirteenth highest)

---

Projected rating: Chiefs 24, Chargers 19

Lineup locks: Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: Omarion Hampton returned from harm Monday evening and was on the brief finish of a committee with Kimani Vidal. Vidal really dominated when it comes to snaps performed (49-22), however alternatives had been a lot nearer, with Vidal totaling 14 carries and three targets to Hampton’s 13 carries and two targets. Each backs had been efficient, with Vidal catching a 60-yard cross and Hampton following with a TD reception.

Hampton’s position is prone to enhance because the season progresses, however Vidal’s heavy utilization Monday suggests he will not utterly disappear. Hampton has upside, however he is finest seen as a flex possibility in a tricky Week 15 matchup in opposition to a Kansas Metropolis protection that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy factors to working backs. Vidal is finest left on benches.

Shadow Report: Kansas Metropolis receivers ought to be downgraded in opposition to a Los Angeles protection that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy factors to the place, together with the fewest to the perimeter and fifth fewest to the slot. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-lowest catch fee (57%) and yards per goal (6.8), in addition to solely six TDs to receivers. The 16.0 factors scored by A.J. Brown on Monday evening are essentially the most Los Angeles has allowed to a receiver since Week 7. Rice stays a lineup lock, although Xavier Worthy is finest left on benches.

Over/below: 43 (ninth highest)
Win likelihood: Chiefs 64% (eighth highest)

---

Projected rating: Patriots 27, Payments 24

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Josh Allen, James Cook dinner III, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: Once we final noticed the Patriots (Week 13), they had been again to their previous methods of a Rhamondre Stevenson-led backfield committee. The veteran Stevenson dealt with 12 carries and three targets on 38 snaps, in comparison with 11 carries and 4 targets on 30 snaps for TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson was simpler on the bottom, however Stevenson did extra injury within the passing sport, which aligns with what we have seen all through the season. Whereas Henderson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 5.2 yards per goal, Stevenson sits at an unsightly 3.2 yards per carry however a robust 8.6 yards per goal.

We must always anticipate the backfield cut up to proceed, and the unlucky actuality is that neither again has been beneficial in fantasy when each are energetic. Within the 10 video games they’ve performed collectively, Stevenson is averaging 8.8 fantasy PPG (three video games over 11.0 factors) and Henderson is averaging 7.5 PPG (zero video games over 12.6 factors). Although it is a terrific matchup (the Payments have allowed the second-most touchdowns and seventh-most fantasy factors to RBs), the timeshare reduces each to not more than flex choices.

Over/below: 50.7 (third highest)
Win likelihood: Patriots 61% (eleventh highest)

---

Projected rating: Giants 29, Commanders 24

Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Wan’Dale Robinson, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin

Fantasy scoop: Most weeks, we might be seeking to keep away from these backfields, however contemplating that each defenses sit prime three in yards allowed and prime six in fantasy factors allowed to working backs, Week 15 presents us with just a few potential flex choices. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has emerged as Washington’s lead again, and whereas he is but to clear 12.5 fantasy factors in any sport this season, he is discovered the top zone in 4 of his previous seven outings. His upside is restricted by a nonexistent position within the passing sport, however he very effectively might make up for that this week in opposition to a Giants protection that has allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per carry and 16 TDs (fifth most) to RBs.

The final time we noticed the Giants (Week 13), Tyrone Tracy Jr. was working because the lead again however left the sport early as a result of an harm. Tracy had delivered 130-plus yards and 16-plus fantasy factors in two straight video games previous to the harm, so if capable of play this week, he’ll be on the RB2 radar on this elite matchup. If Tracy is sidelined, Devin Singletary (102 yards and one TD on 15 touches in Week 13) could be the Giants’ clear lead again and would discover himself within the RB2 combine.

Shadow Report: Paulson Adebo is an efficient guess to shadow McLaurin this week, as he did when these groups met in Week 1. In that sport, Adebo aligned throughout from McLaurin on 23 of his 29 routes, together with 21 of twenty-two on the perimeter. McLaurin was held in examine (2-27-0 on 4 targets), whereas Samuel (7-77-0) put collectively a stable exhibiting. Adebo has since missed fairly a little bit of motion as a result of harm, however he is additionally shadowed different prime perimeter receivers, together with A.J. Brown and Courtland Sutton. In fact, New York has struggled general in opposition to the cross, sitting prime 5 in catches, yards and fantasy factors allowed to receivers. Expectations for McLaurin may be downgraded barely, whereas Samuel stands to learn.

Over/below: 52 (2nd highest)
Win likelihood: Giants 61% (tenth highest)

---

Projected rating: Eagles 24, Raiders 13

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Ashton Jeanty, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Brock Bowers

Fantasy scoop: Jeanty stays one of many hardest evaluations in fantasy, as his fantasy output hasn’t fairly matched his terrific quantity. Jeanty sits fifteenth in carries and sixth in targets amongst RBs, however he is averaging simply 3.5 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per goal, each of which rank close to the basement within the league. Consequently, he sits twentieth in yardage and 18th in fantasy PPG amongst RBs. Jeanty has overperformed expectations when it comes to touchdowns (eight TDs, 6.7 anticipated), although three of them got here in a single sport (Week 4) they usually have not helped a lot currently (12.1 or fewer fantasy factors in three of his previous 4).

Nonetheless, Jeanty’s heavy utilization — particularly as a receiver (five-plus targets in five-straight video games) — is sufficient to maintain him locked into lineups, particularly this week in matchup in opposition to an Eagles protection that sits prime 10 in yards, touchdowns and fantasy factors allowed to working backs.

Over/below: 36.8 (Lowest)
Win likelihood: Eagles 85% (third highest)

---

Projected rating: Jaguars 28, Jets 15

Lineup lock: Travis Etienne Jr.

Fantasy scoop: Breece Corridor is hard to justify as a lineup lock this week for a wide range of causes. For starters, he hasn’t been a constantly good fantasy possibility this season. Corridor sits seventh amongst backs in yardage, however the Jets’ offensive struggles have restricted him to solely 4 touchdowns, which isn’t a fluke contemplating he has had solely two carries contained in the opponent’s 5-yard line. He is hit for the occasional large sport (15-plus fantasy factors six occasions) however has blended in loads of duds (single digits in six video games, together with two of his previous 4).

Corridor can also be coping with QB uncertainty (Tyrod Taylor left Week 14’s loss with an harm and Justin Fields was inactive) and an especially arduous matchup in opposition to a Jaguars protection that has allowed the second-fewest yards, fifth-fewest fantasy factors and third-lowest yards per carry (3.7) to RBs. Solely Christian McCaffrey (26.1 in Week 4) has reached 20 factors in opposition to Jacksonville. Corridor has severe bust potential this week (particularly if undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook dinner is below heart) and is not more than a fringe RB2.

Over/below: 42.8 (eleventh highest)
Win likelihood: Jaguars 89% (Highest)

---

Projected rating: Texans 24, Cardinals 16

Lineup locks: Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Jacoby Brissett has reeled off eight — sure, eight — consecutive top-12 fantasy outings. (For perspective, no different quarterback has an energetic streak longer than Trevor Lawrence‘s 4.) The Houston protection, in the meantime, has but to permit a QB a weekly end higher than 14th this complete season. Speak about an unstoppable drive vs. an immoveable object. Since taking on as Arizona’s beginning QB in Week 6, Brissett is averaging 20.5 fantasy PPG, which trails solely Josh Allen (24.0) and Jaxson Dart (23.1) for finest within the league through the span. Quantity has been the important thing, as Brissett’s 345 cross makes an attempt (44 greater than every other QB), 229 completions (+34) and a pair of,459 passing yards (+178) are simply tops within the NFL through the span.

Brissett’s manufacturing shall be sufficient to make him a beneficial streaming possibility throughout Week 16 (ATL) and Week 17 (CIN), however he ought to be relegated to benches in opposition to Houston right here in Week 15. A Texans protection that has held Allen (8.1 fantasy factors) and Patrick Mahomes (6.3) in examine over the previous month has surrendered the fewest touchdowns (12) and fantasy factors to quarterbacks this season.

Shadow Report: We must always anticipate Derek Stingley Jr. to shadow both Harrison (if he returns from harm) or Michael Wilson this week. Stingley hasn’t traveled since Week 9, however he has completed so this season in opposition to prime perimeter receivers, together with Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr. and Courtland Sutton. Regardless, it is a powerful project for all Arizona receivers, because the Texans have allowed simply seven TDs, the bottom catch fee (54%) and third-fewest fantasy factors to receivers, in addition to the bottom EPA in opposition to the cross. Solely 5 receivers have reached 13 factors in opposition to them, and the one two who reached 18 had been superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua.

Wilson is averaging 30.8 fantasy PPG in three video games with Harrison out, however has zero efforts with double-digit fantasy factors in 10 video games with him within the lineup, so he’ll solely be a secure starter if he stays Brissett’s prime goal. Harrison ought to be in lineups if wholesome sufficient to play, however he clearly carries added bust threat.

Over/below: 39.9 (14th highest)
Win likelihood: Texans 79% (fifth highest)

---

Projected rating: Packers 24, Broncos 24

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton

Shadow Report: This one is a bit tough, however there’s an opportunity the Broncos select to shadow Romeo Doubs or red-hot Christian Watson with Pat Surtain II this week. The reigning defensive participant of the 12 months has shadowed prime receivers typically, but it surely’s unclear if Denver will decide Doubs or Watson because the precedence. Watson appears more than likely, as he is been excellent as of late (18-plus fantasy factors in three of his previous 4, with 5 TDs through the span), however Doubs has labored because the group’s prime receiver many of the season and spends much less time within the slot than Watson (Doubs 19%, Watson 35%).

Regardless, it is a powerful matchup for all Inexperienced Bay receivers, as Denver has allowed a league-low 5 TDs and the eighth-fewest fantasy factors to the place. Solely three receivers have reached 16 fantasy factors in opposition to the Broncos, and none have reached 23. Watson ought to be seen as a WR3/flex, whereas Doubs (zero catches final week) ought to be on benches.

Over/below: 47.6 (fifth highest)
Win likelihood: Packers 50% (Lowest)

---

Projected rating: Rams 30, Lions 24

Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, Jameson Williams

Fantasy scoop: Blake Corum exploded for 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 12 carries throughout Sunday’s blowout win over Arizona. Regardless of the large day, the second-year again shouldn’t be in lineups. Corum’s productive sport (profession highs in yards, TDs and fantasy factors) was his first profession effort with greater than 14.1 factors, and Corum stays second fiddle to Williams, having but to play greater than 37% of the snaps or clear 13 touches in a sport in his profession. Although Corum has been productive on the bottom the previous two weeks, it is come on a complete of simply 19 carries and he stays virtually nonexistent within the passing sport (13 yards on 11 targets).

Each Rams backs are in a tricky spot this week in opposition to a Lions protection that has allowed solely six TDs and the fewest fantasy factors to RBs. Just one again (Quinshon Judkins in Week 4) has cleared 16 factors in opposition to Detroit. Corum is efficacious solely as an insurance coverage bench stash.

Shadow Report: Improve Rams receivers in opposition to a struggling and injury-plagued Lions protection that has allowed the second-most fantasy factors (most over the previous eight and 4 weeks) to the place, in addition to the third-most factors to the perimeter. Detroit sits prime 5 in yards and TDs (20) allowed to the place and shall be with out star defensive backs Terrion Arnold and Brian Department for the remainder of the season (to not point out that Kerby Joseph has been sidelined since Week 6). Nacua and Adams are effectively positioned for extra high-end fantasy output.

Over/below: 54.3 (Highest)
Win likelihood: Rams 72% (sixth highest)

---

Projected rating: Panthers 20, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan, Chris Olave

Fantasy scoop: Tyler Shough did not do a lot as a passer in opposition to the Buccaneers on Sunday (144 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) however nonetheless put up 21.3 fantasy factors because of a profession day as a rusher (7-55-2). Shough has delivered 17-plus fantasy factors in three of his 5 begins, although the exceptions had been single-digit duds. Shough’s effectivity has been stable for a rookie, and whereas he has as many passing TDs as he does INTs (5 every), he is helped his fantasy ground with six-plus carries in three straight video games.

The second-rounder has completed sufficient to make him a possible beginning possibility in superflex codecs, however he is not but on the streaming radar in one-QB leagues, particularly this week in opposition to a Carolina protection that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy factors to QBs. Shough did throw for a career-high 282 yards and put up 19.0 fantasy factors when these groups met in Week 10 however, with no groups on a bye this time round, the rookie is finest left on waivers.

Over/below: 39 (fifteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Panthers 52% (fifteenth highest)

---

Projected Rating: 49ers 29, Titans 18

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: The Week 14 “the place the heck did that come from?!” award goes to Tony Pollard. After failing to succeed in 15 fantasy factors in any of his first 12 video games of the season, together with 5 straight single-digit efforts, Pollard exploded for 161 yards and two TDs on 25 touches in opposition to Cleveland. Pollard put up 28.1 fantasy factors (his most since Week 11 of 2022) regardless of not seeing a single goal.

The robust exhibiting is notable, however so is the truth that Pollard ran throughout a Browns run protection that has been struggling badly, having allowed the opposing lead again to attain 17-plus fantasy factors in 5 consecutive video games. Set for a impartial matchup this week and nonetheless deferring work to Tyjae Spears (particularly in passing conditions), Pollard could be very prone to crash again to earth this week. He is not more than a flex dart throw.

Shadow Report: Improve 49ers receivers in opposition to a Titans protection that has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy factors to receivers (second most over anticipated). Tennessee sits prime 10 in yards and TDs allowed and has surrendered a league-high 69% catch fee to the place. Ricky Pearsall hasn’t completed sufficient to justify a lineup spot simply but, however Jennings ought to locked into lineups.

Over/below: 46.7 (sixth highest)
Win likelihood: 49ers 86% (2nd highest)

---

Projected rating: Seahawks 25, Colts 16

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Fantasy scoop: Daniel Jones (Achilles) is finished for the season, which, at the very least for now, positions Riley Leonard because the Colts’ beginning quarterback. The sixth-round rookie stepped in for Jones throughout Sunday’s loss and accomplished 18 of 29 passes for 145 yards, zero TDs and one INT. Leonard added 5 yards and one TD along with his legs, which is notable, as that is a giant a part of his sport. In the course of the 2024 collegiate season, Leonard posted a 164-1011-17 dashing line (excluding sacks) at Notre Dame, which included a hefty 10.6% scramble fee.

Leonard’s presence is prone to result in considerably much less passing and scoring, which is, after all, dangerous information for the group’s ability gamers. Taylor stays a lineup lock regardless of a tricky matchup in opposition to a Seattle protection that has allowed a league-low 3.6 yards per carry to RBs, however the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. (extra on him in a second) and Tyler Warren (Seattle has struggled in opposition to TEs, however he is totaled 37 yards over the previous two weeks) are much less interesting beginning choices.

Shadow Report: Already in a tricky spot with Jones sidelined, Colts receivers may also have their fingers full with Seattle’s elite cross protection this week. Regardless of dealing with the fourth-most cross makes an attempt, the Seahawks have surrendered the sixth-fewest fantasy factors to receivers (fewest over anticipated) and the second fewest to the perimeter. Seattle has allowed the fewest receiving yards and a league-low 5.8 yards per goal to receivers. The aforementioned Pittman dealt with 10 (27%) of Leonard’s 36 aimed throws final week, however he is not a very interesting flex possibility, nor are Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.

Shadow Report: Charvarius Ward (if cleared from the league’s concussion protocol) is a candidate to shadow Smith-Njigba this week, as he did in opposition to Calvin Ridley (he scored 3.7 fantasy factors within the sport) and Davante Adams (15.6) earlier this season, and as he did in opposition to Nico Collins (14.8) and Brian Thomas Jr.(11.7) with Sauce Gardner sidelined the previous two weeks. Assuming Gardner stays out this week, Ward will probably align on Smith-Njigba the 77% of the time he is on the perimeter. We need not downgrade him a lot, although Rashid Shaheed will make for an intriguing sleeper on the opposite facet in opposition to Jaylon Jones.

In fact, if Gardner returns, all of Seattle receivers would have their fingers full in opposition to Gardner, Ward and terrific slot nook Kenny Moore II. If each Gardner and Ward are out, Seattle’s receivers could be in a great place in opposition to replacements Jones and Mekhi Blackmon on the perimeter.

Over/below: 40.8 (thirteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Seahawks 79% (4th highest)

---

Projected rating: Cowboys 25, Vikings 21

Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Justin Jefferson

Fantasy scoop: Jake Ferguson is effectively on his solution to a terrific general season, however his fantasy output has slipped as of late. Throughout his first seven video games, Ferguson averaged 8.3 targets (22% share) and 17.2 fantasy factors with six touchdowns to his title. In his previous six video games, Ferguson has one landing and is averaging 5.3 targets (14%) and eight.4 fantasy factors. Ferguson is doing simply sufficient to hold within the TE1 dialogue (three top-12 finishes in his previous 4 video games) however merely hasn’t had any upside (below 12 fantasy factors in six straight). Fantasy’s No. 2-scoring TE on the season is a fringe beginning possibility in opposition to a Vikings protection that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and solely 14 passing TDs.

Shadow Report: Downgrade Dallas’ receivers in opposition to a Minnesota protection that has allowed the fewest fantasy factors to the place. That features the third-fewest factors to the perimeter, which is the place Pickens (90%) and Lamb (64%) align most frequently. Minnesota has surrendered the second-fewest catches and eight TDs to the place, and solely eight receivers have reached double-digit fantasy factors in opposition to them.

Over/below: 45.9 (seventh highest)
Win likelihood: Cowboys 63% (ninth highest)

---

Projected rating: Steelers 22, Dolphins 21